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Friday, April 11, 2014 - a quick read on raw impressions

First project post Veteran Lender's entry here, very a propos in view of the color of nearly every world market, and Bloomberg's menacing blood red futures.


Huge Markets Swings Signal The Crash Is Close...

Submitted by Veteran_Lender on Fri, 04/11/2014 - 06:31.

Business Cycles and Business Policy: 006 Reviving the Forgotten.

“There is nothing new but that which is forgotten” Mlle Bertin.

Business Cycles and Business Policy: 006 Reviving the Forgotten.

“There is nothing new but that which is forgotten” Mlle Bertin.

At this hour - 8:15 AM - April 8, 2014

Quick summary:

  • USD down against everything but The Phillipine's and India's currency:
  • All major markets in advance of US openings in the red;
  • Ahead of the vote of US regulators - Banks will be subject to new 6% requirement;
  • Gold takes a sudden jump of 13.2 - and rising?; and,
  • We await the test of the waters in consumer sentiments.

Business Cycles and Business Policy: 005 Wesley Mitchell and beyond 1927

What is a business cycle?

Has Affordable Healthcare passed its goal?

Paul Krugman's NYTimes article today, Rube Goldberg Survives, celebrates the fact that Affordable(?) Care has passed the targeted milestone. The goal had been 7 million participants and as of now 7.1 million have complied.

Reuters Headlines - April 2, 2014

Reuters reports “Recent Business News” April 2, 2014

URL: http://www.reuters.com/finance

High Frequency Trading and its economic consequences - updated and concluded.

When Wesley Clair Mitchell was elected president of the American Statistical Association back in the twenties, this observation was included in his address:

High Frequency Trading exposed on CBS's 60 minutes!

Watch the 14 minute, 43 second segment of 60 Minutes that discusses the techniques and how it has been counter-attacked - a trick that delays transmission just long enough to level the playing field.


Reprise of yesterday's events. . . the "Day After" feeling. . with no antidote!

Yesterday, Wednesday, March 26, 2014, the trading day opened with Bloomberg futures in double digit positive territory after fluctuating through the previous night. The bell rang and the US indices shot up optimistically.

Chinese satellite photos spot debris near Australia

A translation of text from the website of “State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, PRC”

Early Outlook for Wednesday, March 12, 2014.

With global stock markets all in red, Ukraine's interim Prime Minister in Washington and New York to address the threatened Civil War, and alert everyone to a possible Russian intervention, China not resolving its Credit problems and now the Japanese people realizing the downside of the Abe program (With extended pressure exerted to move the yen downward, sooner or later the currency should rebound as it did against the USD.)

Snowden - Russia - and the ACLU!

Hal M. Bundrick, cited here previously for other articles, writing for Mainstreet.com, headlines a recent article with Edward Snowden's declaration that "I took an oath to support the Constitution". This was a videotaped presentation direct from his safe haven in - of all places "the current defender of liberty and free speech", Russia! Through that coupling, both Snowden and Russia are collaborating with the American Civil Liberties Union at an ACLU sponsored convention in Austin, Texas.

Money borrowed on margin funding the stock market again - Shades of 1929!

In the blog section in the Reuters website, this short, little morsel was found. A chart accompanied it which showed the upward thrust of the margin borrowing since 2005, with the previous high point experienced about the time of that fateful French explosion that set off the current crisis, August 9th, 2007.

Wealth and Jobs Revisited

Perhaps it's necessary to revisit subjects periodically. Given the constant change in our readership, or the busy, full days of those interested in the economics and finances of the business world, daily chores tend to wipe out lessons which should not be forgotten. A review of what has already been considered might enhance some of the entries that follow.

Thursday, February 20th, 2014 Market activity

At 9:20 AM global market activity is in the red solidly, still the futures for the US indices are moderating. They have been easing through the night and while Europe and Asia are pondering China and its effect on the future, the bulls on Wall Street are attempting to push our equities forward.

February 10. 2014: What does Duffminster Times face February 11th?

Wandering through the 'net about a month ago brought me to a site whose name and address I hadn't the foresight to record. They evaluated active websites. It was only natural to look up Duffminster Times. Value placed on the site was $48 US! Divided three ways between the three persistent parties writing here makes us each worth $16. A pittance in times past.

Ben Bernanke's Legacy

Thursday, January 30, 2014, Reuters ran an article by Jonathan Spicer and Ann Saphir entitled "Analysis: Only time will define Bernanke's crisis-era legacy at the Fed". Opinion could change the presumption in the "only time will define Ben's legacy" phrasing. His legacy has already been carved in stone and not much can be done to change it. The question may be whether we've taken the time to understand what he's done the past eight years.

Quo Vadis – January, 2014

The title of the latest - and an irresistibly suggestive paper from O&G's viewpoint -

Is the world recovery really strengthening?

Olivier Blanchard, 27 January 2014

DAVOS, Switzerland.

Davos -

This is the center of our egocentric universe at this time.


035: Cental Banks and Monetary Policy - Epilogue

Submitted by Old and Gray on Thu, 01/09/2014 - 11:16

This is a fitting spot for an entry which will close off this series on Central banks and Monetary Policy, carried over from the tsunami thread from June 6th, 2010, which offers an opinion of the section which empowers the Fed to perform its duties and - if interpretation is correct - describes the limits of the Fed's authority.

Closure for the Central Bank and Monetary Policy series.

Link to the full entry -


A Personal Note: Intruders have beaten me down.

Sunday past, DOD Information Service in Ohio was tracking O&G consistently. Nothing unusual.

Monday, from first attempt to reach common net sites, an unknown CLOUDFLARE blasted onto the monitor, full screen, with the message - "ERROR 522 - connection timed out - access denied".

Wednesday and still categorically restricted to very few net sites - Duffminster's and a few others. But, without other access to the outside world such as news sources. etc. it's pointless to continue.

Another Old Work Unearthed - Where has the money gone?

September 12, 2013 O&G posted an entry in his Corner entitled, A Bypath on the Road to Evolution of Economics As a Science relative to economics since Adam Smith’s initial study of Wealth – in his Wealth of Nations. Since 1776 there have been several attempts to steer economists’ interest in the direction of the entire population rather than restricting it to wealth and the wealthy.


Business Cycles and Business Policy: 004 Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913)

[Mitchell’s 1913 focus was on four nations during the period under study, Germany, Britain, France and the United States. It is extensive and will not be critiqued here to save time for his later work (1927 and 1946). Instead, a summary review focusing on the value of the work is called for. This is the simpler route due to Mitchell’s accommodating habit, that of an educator, of planting small summaries - serving as signposts - throughout the work, apparently to ease the load on the over-worked businessman an essential part of his intended audience.]

This overdue work in progress will be pasted piece meal as developed in O&G's blogsite withthe lead paragraph posted here as an indicator of progress.

URL for the location of the latest entry


Is Recovery Possible in Today's Criminal Business setting?

A November 25th Guardian article expands on a view often cited in the tsunami thread: No matter what law specifies, the clever business crowd will find a means to circumvent the letter of the law. Thus, it is impossible, where such lax business morality prevails, to force business into legal business and much less likely ethical behavior. What amplifies the underlying arrogance is the casual acceptance of this as normal business practice by authorities.

Recent Past Collides With the Immediate Future

First: the Forum topic above is a misnomer; it should read "Economists and the global systems". Additionally it is an extension of the comment O&G submitted November 18, 2013, The Thought is Spreading in the William-Dudley-and-the-TBTF thread in which he referenced a Paul Krugman article which lauded Larry Summers for his clarity in analyzing the global situation. That comment is linked here -


Another way to conduct business

Reuters featured this headline.

Caterpillar probed for dumping train parts into sea: WSJ

Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:21am EST

(Reuters) - A unit of Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) is being probed by federal investigators to determine if it had dumped train parts into the ocean off California as part of a scam to charge customers for parts they didn't need, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Market Outlook for 11/13/13 - at:8:18 AM - and a few other brief remarks

In the main, in line with the rustling noticed earlier, uncertainty is reflected in Reuters headlines at 8:18 AM.

William Dudley of the NY Fed Reserve Bank Weighs in with a Discussion of the TBTF

Friday past, November 8, 2013, William Dudley, President of the NY Federal Reserve Bank, the largest in the system, addressed the Global Economic Policy Forum, held in New York City. His subject matter was Too Big To Fail, something O&G has addressed consistently during the past four, closing in on five complete years when February, 2014 rolls around. Our concern has generated an estimated more than two thousand pages of collected text, 1100 alone in the "tsunami thread", which was transplanted here to establish a reference point for further exploration.

FED Board of Governors easing "stringent" reserve requirements for banks in 2014

The following is the introduction of a Federal Reserve Board of Governors press release.

Release Date: November 5, 2013

The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced the annual indexing of the amounts used in determining reserve requirements of depository institutions and deposit reporting panels effective in 2014.

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