Another New Thought: Helicopter money and fiscal rules

Submitted by Old and Gray on Fri, 06/10/2016 - 18:46

by John Muellbauer

John Muellbauer, Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College; Professor of Economics, Oxford University; and Senior Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School.

http://voxeu.org/article/helicopter-money-and-fiscal-rules

His article was posted on voxeu.org 10 June 2016

The preceding article is a puzzle; either the author/professor disbelieves German Weimar 1920s history, preferring to believe Jung’s psychological analysis of events rather than the parallel of research by an historian, Andrew Dickson White, into the French inflation of the late eighteenth century, or, the Professor has never been exposed to standard teachings of monetary policy by the economic profession or discipline. For all the interaction and obfuscation from economists and politicians, this puzzle does not require a difficult or complex solution if the reader can stay with us to the end of this entry.

About the question about Prof. Meulbauer’s helicopter money: did he not hear of the George W. Bush similar “helicopter money distribution” the 300 USD distribution per taxpayer? Doctor, it was utter failure! Would the failure be attributed to the timing in the historic timeline, the sum of money involved (the more recent suggestion is 500 euros, considerably more than W distributed), Add in the cultural differences of Germans penchant for being less investment prone, more savings oriented, with lower prices in general and 500 euros does add up to a great deal more than W. envisioned. And, lest we forget, the Bush distribution was instituted through the tax system. If no taxes were paid, no benefits accrued. (The reminder was missing, but the message was: “Don’t forget this - next election? at the ballot box?”)

Still, that is not the “helicopter money” considered by either Friedman or Bernanke, their suggestions were a good deal more profligate as well as desultory. If helicopter dumps numbers one, two, three and four do not work, neither will five, six, seven or eight. That was the French Fiat lesson of the late eighteenth century, proposed by the most sincere of the French heroes of the day, who paid dearly for their patriotic efforts, which suggested to their successors that the next drop should be larger. The rabble was an angry, impatient lot.

We may have an advantage to the outlook on the proposal here on Duff’s, having been introduced to A. D. White’s ”Inflation in France” complete with documentation and his simple arithmetic of consequence (which should be understood by everyone with or without a degree) accompanying the text courtesy of Veteran Lender’s introduction; but even if that’s an advantage we enjoy over the professor’s education or experience, common sense should dictate that inflation does not respond as expected nor can it go on forever, multiplied under uncontrolled circumstances with no concern about the future. The fact that the past five years has suffered subdued growth, which in turn inhibits attempts to invest the already QE distributed extra “helicopter money”, or keep it safe from normal circulation, that is - safe from normal contact with markets or the supply/demand environment - does not mean all money has changed its nature and will not suddenly leap out of its dormant state and corrupt the economic scene the minute it is released from its restricting bondage. And, we have discovered that the one-time distribution was accepted as such and was not accepted by the Americans as an invitation to rush down to the nearest Wal-Mart and splurge on the devices that would have filled the gap and brought about instant recovery. . . which, whatever their reputation suggested, they did not accept as dictum.

Despite the difference in German habits and customs, expectations should not surpass the historical US results a few years back.

Money at work under current circumstances, which include reticent investors (witness the subdued volume on the NYSE and elsewhere and the suggestions of fewer IPO offerings, etc.) as well as the uncertainty exhibited in fluctuation of the exchange imbalances (with Japan and China leading the way ) and attempts to control credit expansion through fiscal policy (the recent flawed attempt through the Eurozone “fiscal austerity experimentation” which helped generate their present condition) have not responded to normal expectations because we simply are not normal in historic terms when we depend on finance to provide goods for the market and dominate the economy! (That is something still waiting to confront us in the very near future.) The pipeline has just recently shifted, the strengths or weaknesses have not yet been fully tested, and when they are, we’ll discover they cannot satisfy requirements for a global population growth not yet fully calculated, appreciated, or recognized.

We are running out of fuel and the economic engine is sputtering!

We’ve been besieged with ideas of negative interest outwardly without mention of who is to be subjected to the tithes levied through the process. Undoubtedly, it will fall on the lower brackets! All responsibility falls on the lower bracket.

The idea of larger batches of helicopter money already delivered to the larger entities and the well-heeled, tried and found ineffective in the QE rounds, is beginning to find a new batch of devotees globally. Investment advisors are beginning to devise half-baked ideas of quick maneuvers with money a la South American style of a few decades ago – (with recent revivals underway) - of avoiding the effects of hyperinflation, by taking the time off from work to rush down to the local bank or broker to invest, cancel, withdraw or reinvest or redeposit money to guard against loss, in the fitful and panic-driven attempts to save the family fortune. What was once good (but ineffective) for them then is now good enough and will be effective for the rest of the world?

Here’s an observation which may be of some value: that ploy had half a chance in the past when domestic funds under stress could be moved to relatively unaffected global areas before full dedication to “globalization” was in place; but, now globalization has leveled the advantages and when one nation experiences difficulties, since we’ve grown so interdependent, there is little chance of finding a region or section of the globe that does not suffer consequences. Which means your money is not more or less safe elsewhere.

Today you’ll be reading more little ads and blurbs – and tomorrow you’ll be inundated with them - indicating that globalization is a “good thing” suggesting we should all embrace it and be grateful we live in the best, most interactive of all possible worlds. . . for those sitting at the controls, of course! This opinion is advanced on the basis of recent economic papers which “prove” that shocks are transmitted from one point to another such as one bank to another, or one competitor to another, or one nation to another if not at electronic speed, the flaw is simply due to the switch not being flipped on this morning – nothing else. Given that banks are no longer restricted to simple localities, or function only within the boundaries of a single nation, that transmission is instantaneous rather than “delayed” by transmission by the grace and glory of technology.
Why should this happen? Why do we reject the proofs of history and turn down the wrong lane again and again? Is it unwillingness to admit that our guiding science is flawed or mistaken? Or, could it be simple stubbornness? If it’s one or the other what’s the difference? Do the adherents to the discipline have the magic powers to overturn native inclinations of the human race? If so, that is hardly a convincing argument.

The previous O&G thread without comment leading to the Bill Gross blogsite with the hope that it might stimulate some insightful comments still sits there as a challenge. It is part of the future envisioned for us, proposed for us in desperation, holding onto what someone has gained to this point, trusting that someone still has your interest in mind that all is not lost, there is another way out of these dark days.

It’s a long shot that it could ever be so, because any assets sold today for the sake of the safe feeling of cash in hand (which may be the prevailing thought among financial advisors today) will suffer disappointment when the cash dissipates into hyper-devaluation and the assets subsequently multiply in value – under the same impetus.

But, that should be no consolation; if we were all to follow that path, it’s another episode of concentration, everyone shifting to the same side of the boat - we’ll be rich in assets having no markets.

Of course, we could skip it all by just providing the only means we have of saving the entire world from this debacle – raise taxes. . . the bugaboo to be shunned as worse than death. All this searching for a way out is nothing more than an end run around taxation – and the threat is not in the ledger, it’s at the ballot box.

Negative interest rates, austerity, neglecting population growth, switching our paradigm from production to finance and the mess it’s created - - every bit of what you see and what’s to come, has to do with avoiding taxes for those who proportionally own too much already. The specter of multi-billionaires with more than enough assets to bring a nation to its knees inspires the rest of us to genuflect in their direction? Or, imitate them?

A breath-taking, awe-inspiring thought, is it not?

GM Plant Seized And Lost Yesterday

Perhaps it didn't appear in any mainstream news reporting the vast majority of us are exposed to. Amid heavy protests in Venezuela recently, the nation seized, shuttered and snuffed ALL American factories there. USA Today at least reported that a GM plant was put out of business, but there were several. Naturally, big bloated business executives went crying to our government to "save" those offshore job-stealing factories and the sweat shop profitability they make for the idle rich. The response was-- nope. Feel free to seize all those Venezuelan factories in operation HERE on American Soil. There are--- ZERO. Losses are estimated at $800 billion... AMAZINGLY... the exact amount Wall Street pumped up the Dow with--- just yesterday... that is-- three days after it had pumped up the Dow with $750 billion in offset of more than 3 weeks downward slide.

Meanwhile... Steven Mnuchin... a member in our government with direct and specific ties to Goldman Sachs-- the financial tyrannical maker of ALL that is wrong, going down and will trigger Armageddon in the world-- claims a new "tax plan" is near. Wall Street cheered because it no doubt contains wealth-insulating worker-insulting language that will likely get him burned at the stake after the Fairness Trials. He should probably put the Koolaid glass down now and wake up.

We need a fair restart to grow back what made us great once... which will begin the next day after Wall Street is leveled. The world's anger continues to rise. If the wealthy had any balls at all, it would drive INTO the mess they have made and surprise all the inheritors with the challenge of doing what they did from scratch, not scheme hatch. It won't end well any other way.

At A Party

That is true of every problem, including this one. It is like living in a world where nothing happens. They turn their backs on you.

At a party.

Him: did you hear what Trump is doing? He wants to destroy the climate data!

Me: I heard something about that.

Him: tell me what you are thinking about climate change.

Me: it is a long history.

Him: I want to know what you think.

Me: really?

Him: absolutely.

Me: the situation is out of control. The icecaps are melting, droughts are destroying agriculture in the tropical regions, extreme weather phenomena are on the rise. We are in the middle of a mass extinction, destroying the fertile soil, poisonig everything, running out of mineral resource, and the planet is overpopulated.

Him:......

Me......

Him: I read that we'll soon be able to colonize other planets.

Me:........

He walks away, glass in hand.

Smart And Aware People Are Ostracized Today

He wasn't your type.

If your type was the recipient of that statement, he would have responded... so what are we going to do about all that? And listened for intelligence. They are out there.

I am most interested today in-- 1927. It was the last year for unbridled stupid hubris and the year cognizant people took the off-ramp from Koolaid Boulevard toward the safe harbor vicinity.

Most of America will push back on the loss of the EPA until it is revived. That will happen before economy. It may actually be what ignites new economy.

I am looking forward to those wanting to colonize other planets-- leaving for them. It allows the only known planet to naturally sustain life to get back to doing that.

As NEOH's David Stockman has remarked... it is delusional to believe an artificially propped prosperity will last forever. Have a Plan B and a skill set handy.

Make sure your soul is showing.

How Goldman Sachs Goes Down Hard

By now, anyone blaming a "President" or any other "leader" is ignorant. We are where we are because of a Goldman Sachs. From it's IPO in 1999 to-date, this organization has done more damage globe-wide than any terror sect. Bizarrely, they didn't appear out of nowhere... Goldman and Sachs were integral in the huckstering of stocks for a bargain price of ten cents on the dollar (ninety cents owed wink-wink-wink) from 1925 through October 1929. They literally caused the financial imbalance that took down the United States of America and were shadow-present in a number of global collapses in that era. Today's alumni are Ivy League... educated purely for that ticket to glass floors above the ceiling the rest of us exist beneath.

Watch now as a series of corrupt financial initiatives attempt to usurp the less than 3% of free-flowing currencies from around the world and increase the amount stuck in a bunch of dead stocks. We broke 21,000 (DOW) yesterday. The two-day run spearheaded and led by Goldman Sachs cost the American People upwards of $1.4 TRILLION in additional debt. A "duty" was applied to Canadian lumber, an automatic triggering of hyper-inflation in housing. The attempted gasoline coup- failed. We can't afford cars or driving any longer. It is now impossible to live and work in Silicon Valley for less than $160,000 in annual salary but nearly every other place in America has people living on roughly $13 hour wages from multiple low-paying under-employment that is truly the crux of ALL big retail storefronts. The latest-- "Cohn" is a former Goldman Sacher in a key Cabinet role under Trump now and the likely successor to Janet Yellen in the Federal Reserve.

I ask you... how are the following nations fairing today: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Puerto Rico, Poland, Romania? Each is gripped by Goldman Sachs' debt contracts. We are heading into a body-slamming crash now. On the docket for Friday... Congress MUST pass the submitted national budget or America shuts down. In that budget is the full-brunt cost of Trump's Wall. Not a penny paid by Mexico (his campaign promise), no tariff intact tapping Asia for import damage, no new jobs or better pay for his working-age supporters, no unity in the nation BUT... windfalls for lobbies.

See you Monday, America... intact or broken.

When Change Happens

Three books coming. Change coming before them.

I want you to understand something very significant-- we (globe-wide) have not had significant change for decades now. We have had "change" like when auto companies and fashion designers add new colors or toy with components and market the product as- new and improved. Technology is not change. It's cancer. Fuel for complacency. When you remove the Chaos and brutality of Trial, Error, Feast or Failure... you get- Complacency.

When the world knew brutality before anything else, two factions dominated. One used brute force in onslaught to conquer. The other used commonsense and intelligence to thwart the brute and force deviation. There are tales of brute forces driving wild animals through forests ahead of them. The scared and frightened beasts would run ahead and emerge in the enemy camp field, surprising those troops and causing enough Chaos to give the brute the advantage and edge. It was a clever tactic. But as such a trick was played in repetition, it was eventually gamed-on. The enemy learned to "surprise back" the animals and send them panicky back toward the brute. The enemy learned a scatter technique that sent the brute into their camp where he could be trapped by split forces flanking and fronting him. He could emerge to find bloodied corpses covered in what looked like blood (slaughtered animals) and once fully in that camp- surprised by rising from-the-faked-dead warriors and slaughtered by re-surprise. The point is... old tricks are often thwarted by people intelligent-enough to read history and remember it.

An I-Phone addiction leaves a befuddled mess once silenced. A salaried complacency is no match for the guerrilla world it created by oppressing others. A degree is only as good as the skill set gleaned in the classroom then tried and forged in the REAL world. Complacency is cancer. Funny... once there was a motto "NO FEAR" supposedly created to ease the tension of people being led into assimilated existence for the Rise of Big Brother. Perhaps the new motto will be "FEAR". It's only when change takes you by surprise and you exist the next day that you truly grasp how complacent you became and how sweet freedom tastes, even when you are forced to earn it.

TODAY. It's Day 100. Budget in Congress. Anger and Frustration everywhere else today. The forest is full of scared wild animals.

Theory versus reality

Reality does not accomodate economic theory, so economists now turn to comic strips or their equivalent to deal with theoretical short-comings.

In the 1969 Milton Friedman publication, a compilation handiwork of Rose Director Friedman in gathering together Milton's essays dealing with monetary policy and some monetarist viewpoints in economics, Milton churned out an essay that served to draw the twelve previously published essays together under one roof, thus providing a name for the opus and the essay, "The Optimum Quantity of Money".

In order to demonstrate the presence or absense of currency neutrality and a few other points, he sought to introduce a specific amount of currency into the direct control of each individual, providing each resident in the closed economy with exactly equal supplements to the equal-to-the-penny amounts he originally endowed the population with to demonstrate the resulting interaction. He could have used any means to do this: a magic carpet, a blind ostrich, or an invisible samaritan. He chose a helicopter drop. Once the distribution was completed, the helicopter vanished and was never heard of or referred to again and from that point, Milton was off to address his complex point, finishing off the short Section "IV. Basic Principles illustrated" with text that pointed out "two essential empirical generalizations of long-run monetary theory:

  1. The nominal amount of money is determined primarily by conditions of supply.
  2. The real amount of money is determined primarily by conditions of demand - by the functional relation between the real amount of money demanded and other variables in the system."

The point being that he was discussing a hypothetical situation, then introduced a specific amount of currency into his imaginary condition without any additional friction or factors to interfere with a clean, clear distribution which was a one time event never to be accounted for or mentioned again so that he might assess the effects of the addition.

Might these sums not have been distributed by magic carpet, blind ostriches or samaritans? Good thing it was not, because today, and in the recent past some ambitious economists, none of whom can be considered reliable monetarists, are using Milton's Helicopter drop as an alternate means of saving us from the residual ravages of our recession. It would be ludicrous to propose we use magic carpets or blind ostriches to advance the art of monetary polcy, would it not?

Is it going too far to suggest that they probably see the means as a re-introduction of the money purloined from the system by those who backed the extraction to begin with and created the recession we know not how to resolve. Who knows that a vanishing helicopter did not appear at the loading dock one morning before sunbreak and make off with the loaded pallets of cash that caused the collapse?

Yes, folks like Ben Bernanke, Willem Buiter and other lesser known flickering lights have turned a casual device into monetary policy. Which in turn causes people like Claudio Borio, Ben Bernanke, Richard Caballero and Stephen Grenville, Adair Turner, Lucretia Reichlin and other equally competient people, to spend time discussing some improbable and a great number of likely soft spots that would be created by the practice should it be introduced. We might assume that the new helicopter drop is offered as a means of counterbalancing the QEs of trillions of dollars distributed to the commercial side of the equation. If it doesn't work, another helicopoter drop QE or two to the commercial side will follow and around and around we go a la France late 1700s.

Sound ludicrous? From what point on?

Better yet, let's don't call up Friedman's memory and cast the burden of responsibility onto his shoulders. He never mentioned any such monetary policy. He was too smart for that. In the first place, as Borio et. al. point out in their paper, "Helicopter Money: The Illusion of a free lunch" - the last section of which is headed Beware of central Banks bearing gifts, they also pointed out that this is not a matter for central banks, giving away money is the privilege of the governments through fiscal policy.

.

Does this desperate move illustrate the hopeless state of economics in dealing with the recession they cannot understand because they choose not to identify the culprits who created it or discuss how the same people benefitted from it at a cost borne by everyone else?

An alternate theory concerning Brexit

With all of the "doom and gloom" predictions concerning Britain's exit, I found this article somewhat refreshing:
International finance expert James Lothian, PhD, the Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Gabelli School of Business and holder of the Toppeta Family Chair in Global Financial Markets, answers 4 key questions on Britain’s June 23 vote to withdraw from the European Union.

1) For the uninitiated, why is the future of the European Union such a big deal? Or is it?

As things have turned out, the E.U. is not that big of a deal. The initial impetus was good–get rid of barriers to trade in Europe. That was a big plus.

One major minus was that trade with the rest of the world remained inhibited by tariffs and other non-tariff barriers. Pick any consumer durable–say a TV, a computer or an electric drill–and you will pay at least 25 percent more in an E.U. country than in the United States.

The second was that the E.U. has become a big bureaucracy that grows like [wild] year in and year out. That bureaucracy does what bureaucrats do. They inflict costs on the rest of society in the form of taxes and regulations. All of these things have costs in terms of diminished productivity and real GDP growth. People are made worse off.

And they restrict human freedom. European bureaucrats could not give a fig about the common man and woman. Theirs is a power trip.

Washington is getting out of control in this regard. Brussels [the Belgian city the European Union calls home]is worse. It does, however, have one saving grace: more Michelin-starred restaurants than any city other than Paris. And guess who pays the expense account bills for that?
2) The European Union is obviously a huge economic entity, but with some obviously shaky partners such as Greece. [Will the] pullout by Britain, one of the largest members of the union, signal an imminent collapse of the EU?

No, but it [is] a wake up call. Some other countries may start thinking hard about costs vs. returns from membership in the E.U., and more importantly, the single currency.

3) What is the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and commerce?

A leave [will] be good for us, not huge but a positive. Trade between the U.K. and the United States, which is already considerable, [will] increase further. The E.U. has free trade within its bloc, but 20 percent tariffs on goods from the rest of the world.

4) If there are [stock]losses, will they be short-term or long-term?

The idea underlying theme is that real GDP will plummet and that those declines will feed directly into stock prices. The fact is that the U.K.’s real GDP is more likely to increase. Correspondingly, spillovers abroad will be minimal. Trade will not come to an end. It very likely will increase on net. Income will not fall. It very likely will rise. The only losers on this deal are the bureaucrats and the protected industries in the E.U. that would have to compete with industries in the rest of the world.

http://news.fordham.edu/business-and-economics/brexit-business-professor...

The Age Of Destabilazation

I am a pro-European Eurosceptic. By instinct I am a European.

Financial authorities around the world warned of dire consequences were Britain to leave the Euro, but, I recognize, it is hard to see what these might be. Britain's auto industry is mostly owned by German companies, who will not stop producing or buying cars made in their British plants. The 2008 collapse has already cleaned most of the fluff out of the City of London, which shed more than 130,000 jobs in the years after the crisis. The global ambitions of European banks are long since gone and it is unlikely that a grat deal of financial business will leave the already shrunken City.
Britain contributes half a percent of its GDP to the rest of Europe each year, mostly to Eastern Europe an I recognize this drain on the British taxpayer will end.

Europe's attention now will turn to Italy, whose $2.2 trillion sovereign debt is the same as Germany's with an economy barely over half the size. Roughly a fifth of Italian banks loans are non-performing, and Italian banks are trading at liquidation prices. The victor in Rome and Turin majoral elections of the Five Stars movement, an expression of populist surrealism, portends a collapse of the center-left government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The Brexit vote probably will set an example for the Italian populists and Eurosceptics elsewhere. This is a seroius problem.

Another victor in the unexpected Brexit vote is American presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose brand of populist nationalism resonates with anti-European sentiment in Britain. Trump will point to the British vote as a defeat for elite economic management.

It is also true that in the UK there are regrets, recriminations and accusations. Young people complain that the vote did not take their interests into account. A petition for a second referendum reached over 3m votes in a few days. There is a sense of denial: if only we could turn back time...but it is too late. The UK is now persona non grata in the EU.

Populist movements arise.
People dream of prosperity but they have poverty. They dream of being important but they are insignificant. They dream of fulfilling, enjoyable work, but they have drudgery. They dream but they have no hope. Populist movements sell them hope.
When people have no hope, the sellers of snake oil become rich.

The Age of Realization Begins...

I am an individual. I am what I am and one thing I am not is-- reliant on a group for any part of my identity. This is a critical part of the approaching shift to Reality.

Nostradamus warned us about anti-Anti-Christs and I for one, was boggled by the label. What the heck could an anti anti... be? A well-known comedian's recent take on it was: so I'm the bad guy for watching a 6'4" tall man in heels, lipstick, a bad wig and odd-fitting stretch mini dress follow my 9 year-old daughter into the Women's restroom and saying that's not right. Said again different venue-- So I am a bad guy for raising my eyebrows as Janet Yellen is "data watching" today to decide whether or not she should LOWER the bank rate from 0% to giving Wall Street rebates for borrowing to keep dead cat stocks of inept business platforms alive? Notably, Nostradamus warned us about when a "European Union" forms (yes, those two words are in his quatrains) and it's collapse. We must be closing in on those 1,000 years of peace foretold in the next quatrain.

Forget about the BREXIT long enough to consider the positive impact of the Bank of England lending directly to those small entrepreneurs looking to revitalize Main Streets in hamlets, villages and urban sectors that can demonstrate a tangible commerce venue (no financial services). Reviving everything now imported back drafts a renaissance in small manufacturing, craft, skill and cooperatives. When you mention Trump, this is more likely an adjunct of his term in Office than not... all he has actually said in his rants is-- disconnect from New World Order and concentrate governmental assets on revitalizing commerce. He is the right choice for that.

I wince at the connotations of the EU going after Italy. Consider this... the Piedmont Valley still grows superb wine grapes. China buys the puree annually. End that and Italy can restore it's incredible wine-making industry. Pulling Armani, Zanella and all the other Uomo design and tailor studios back from China revives those. There is no challenge to the FACT that original indigenous manufacturing of specialty goods throughout Europe are superior to the mass-produced facsimiles made elsewhere. Italian products, Polish products, German products, etc... used to be the hallmarks. The advances in logistics born out of the everything-Amazon era will make those goods comparable in price now and eliminating Big Box dominance for smaller specialty enterprises worldwide will restore economy. Remove the tariffs imposed on countries in the EU and they can buy globally and export globally again. Free the people from Brussels Bureaucracy and grow economies.

You can grasp who loses here. Italy and Germany... over $2 Trillion in debt. Greece-- financially insolvent. Bad debt and destitution in every South American nation. It goes on. Iceland told Britain... we resisted first and it wasn't easy but there is still a thriving Iceland. Look at America after it's Revolution. The one common entity for all the world's debt is not the IMF, or World Bank or any other bank... it's Goldman Sachs... underwriter for nearly every failing vessel today.

Janet Yellen MUST act after today but which way and for what result? More "exits" ahead. That will definitely do some boggling in the Giant Complacency. Call it rash but... Close the banks, end the Federal Reserve and get RID of Wall Street. The Great Fake Money Evaporation is looking better and better every day.

Requiem For A Dream

For many years, I had thought that a united Europe was a great idea. An institution created by wise men who had wanted to avoid repeating the horrible mistakes that had led Europeans to massacre each other in two terrible wars. Europe was supposed to be a Europe of the people, a force for peace, for justice, for the defense of both humankind and nature. But it's not.
The European Parliament is a bunch of ill-advised, pompous bureaucrats wandering in a gigantic and useless palace. The ghosts of the founders had been thoroughly exorcised and now what is left is an empty shell, a structure that just perpetuated itsels without any clear purpose, except drilling more fossil fuels out of the ground and- maybe - make war to Russia.

So here is where we find ourselves.

- The economic system is not working. The age of enterprise has become the age of unearned income. The age of the market, te age of market failure. The age of opportunity a steel cage of zero-hour contracts, precarity and surveillance.

- The political system is not working. The real decisions are taken elsewhere: by the money, for the money.

- Culture is not working. When the peculiarities of community and place are swept away by the tides of capital, all that is left is a globalized shopping culture, in which we engage with glazed passivity. Man was born free, and he is everywhere in chainstores.

How will politics change without a maelstorm? Remote authority has been rejected so let'us address the task that the left and center have catastrophically neglected: developing a political and economic philosophy fit for the 21th Century, rather than repeatedely microwaving the leftovers of the 20th. If the history of the last 80 years tell us anything, it is that little changes without a new and feracious framework of thought. And when it arrives, everything changes.

Despair and rage and curse: there are reasons enough to do so. But, if the Age of Realization is beginning, then raise your eyes to where hope lies.

much ado about nothing

Oh how the main stream media and even the alternative media have portrayed the Brexit, or the possible break-up of the EU as being an "end of civilization" event.
I suppose if the internet and television existed during the 18th through later 20th century that they would have been saying similar things as colonial powers lost their own NWO of pretending to be daddy to far away lands.
The whole scenario reminds me of when we are expecting a "snow" event in northern Ohio. Initial reports call for possibly 4in of snow and then competing news channels are predicting possibly 2-3 ft of snow a few hours later. The sheeple naturally tune in to the channels that have the most spectacular scenarios. So everybody goes to bed and wakes up in the morning, looks out their window, and find 2 in of snow. Within 24 hrs everybody has forgotten about the "snowmegeddon" reports.
Mankind has the memory of a camera flash and is easily misled by "media", "politicians", and other so called "experts". We have the uncanny ability to be deceived repeatedly by these people.
The USA invaded Iraq because Saddam allegedly had a stockpile of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons that would destroy the world. There were none. Most people in the USA give you a blank stare when you bring this to their attention. It's like talking to a dog. They just pant and wag their tail. So now we do the same with Libya, Syria, Russia and you get the same reaction.
Yes there was big money lost when those old colonial powers lost their colonies. Yes the 2% that owm 90+% might lose some. The rest of us won't notice much...unless you let the 2% convince you to die in battle so that the 2% can stay rich.

Warexit

"Much ado about nothing"

The main issue that was raised during the campaign was about immigration.
Neither Brexit, nor Italexit will solve the immigration problem. The only way to solve the problem is Warexit. Therefore it's blindingly obvious that if we want to put an end to refugees and asylum seekers, we must no longer support the mostly illegal wars that destroy their homes and countries.

If you'll excuse me...I have sun, crystal blue waters in my mind now. I will find them in Lampedusa. Tomorrow. Far away from Italian banking bailout. It will evoke the darkest days of 2008.
Ciao

So WHY Have We Not Corrected?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/everyone%E2%80%99s-a-winner-in-br...

What you have to find fascinating about this article is--- it validates failure not omnipotence. For Central Banks to be printing at this rate, all forms of currency on Earth are rapidly declining in value due to dilution. There cannot be tangible value to anything associated with global financial sectors at all. Essentially, they fake print to bail themselves while causing the next reason to fail.

I think the one thing we aren't recognizing that aligns the current era with the past is-- people paid salaries are literally prolonging their own assimilation into the real world (which is destitute). We cannot formulate recovery until people everywhere admit that failure happened and this artificial economic stuff recovered nothing of value or viability.

Euro-exits... two pole positions to watch as this race begins... nations opting-out and forcing economy that is not based on financial wrangling (financial services totally collapsing) AND the state of Japan as nations opting-out do not recognize the obligations caused by financial tyrannical control and manipulation. When the curtains open and reveal the machine operators-- don't be shocked that you and I knew all along who they were- emphasis on "were".

Exit Update

Some interesting observations... financial people in Britain were halted from exporting assets (money) off the Isle over the weekend. Both parties prepare candidates for new election. Noteworthy... neither platform suggests a remain will gain favor so BOTH parties are soliciting for post-exit activity. Sterling is losing value against the Euro and Dollar but NO money is exchanging across the world so far today. Pre-Opening Bell stock figures suggest repayment of obligations borrowed to bolster last week.

A stall at Sears. The routine of removing all the clearance and sale tags on goods, then announcing "store-wide" markdowns is false advertising but... who can prosecute an entity going out of business? Everything left in Sears' failing stores is found elsewhere in better condition for as much as HALF OFF the price at the cashier in Sears. In other Big Retailers, they are monitoring markdowns and returning items to wholesale points when they achieve 90% off the MSRP. It tells us all that little activity is actually occurring in the B2C sector (Business to Consumer).

Technology-- it's getting very hard to actually click on an article and read it. The transition from source to view portal takes several minutes and bounces, freezes, shifts with the deluge of pariah programs monitoring what we are doing and the garbage that surrounds the actual target of our interest. It's notable that on MSNBC, an article may have just 250 words (read in a minute) but 1,000 distractions per page. We actually no longer see the distractions or have mental refusals to see them-- so they are not view-able ads, articles or anything more than nuisances. It's likely that Big Tech is creating it's own train wreck through commercial exploitation.

All of this is resembling a pimple more and more everyday. It used to scare us but no longer. Anybody read news on South America lately? Nearly ALL the nations there stopped paying on debt obligation and have reverted to social survival tactics. It's not food banks or rationing... it looks more like free markets covering necessities to ward off violence. Interesting tactic while those nations reel from a lack of jobs.

If you can't see it yet... the English have appeared to say "BOO" to the monster (New World Order) and the monster freaked out. Freezing asset exodus is the new thing to watch. Anybody notice that Switzerland is building an army and buying weapons? Why? The Swiss mailing address for VISA starts 666...

Recession Update

To further exacerbate a loser-condition for Hillary Clinton, we have these... Obama uses Air Force One to ferry her around and for stumping while the US Budget needs cannot be met by incoming revenues. She escapes prosecution for a scandal but the FBI Director clearly admonishes that she lied. Her campaign luster is contained in Twitter. There's no love or trust of Hillary. Bill stands nearby... good Americans don't want him using her position to give him the ability to seek revenge or becoming the invisible President dictating from the bedroom. Obama faces a gauntlet that will be his legacy now... he focused on LGBT instead of the USA and on illegals becoming citizens instead of helping indigenous Americans get jobs restored and business platforms dismantled. He more than anyone else appears to be a leading voice in New World Order and indentured globalization... all we got for Hipster/Dipster rule is massive debt and unsustainable things.

We need to pay attention to Big Oil again. It is fascinatingly sick to read: America has the most oil, gas prices are rising causing gluts that disappear in the bookkeeping and PLEASE let us drill in National Parks and build pipe lines that divide the nation. Oh... and we have guns and trillions of rounds of ammo to "convince" you to allow us to ruin the ground you must drive on for every little thing. Nice try, GOP, but me thinks what you REALLY got was a bill for the anti-Americanism that defines YOUR legacy. Yours is offshore and those folks are falling apart.

I once wrote long ago... where do the crooked run to once they ruin the world through Attempted Order and damage every last place on Earth? My self-inflicted answer was and remains... buy hand baskets for where you are headed.

The odds are completely against the world's people tolerating algorithmic assimilation now. When you are forced to eat cake, you grow to hate cake- no matter what the flavor. I suspect the pendulum swing requires do-able talents demonstrated in skill with a tangible verifiable result. Millennials want simplicity restored. They intend to see Bernie Sanders in the White House by write-in vote. They don't put money in banks, they don't invest on Wall Street, they don't trust or tolerate a Federal Reserve. Funny ironic... they have degrees that cost them plenty in credit debt but cannot get jobs in the fields the degree is in. They have life-lesson jobs and manage budgets and life at the thrift level. They are less likely to buy a Mercedes if they could afford one, more likely to invest in sustainable pursuits or bizarrely-- fantasy. Nothing in between. As this garbage Administration falls away, the vast majority of victims (the entire former Middle Class) will repeat what survivors of the Great Depression did. No Mercedes for those folks either.

Every "big" is at the edge of the caldera right now, seeing their very existence flash before their eyes caused entirely by their own misdoing. Less than 1% of currencies flow anywhere on Earth now. 99% of all that was valid and since fake-printed (toxic) is in a cistern the majority deem "rigged" and corrupt. The first new leader from any nation anywhere on Earth that declares all stocks and bonds BOGUS wins the trust of the vast majority.

The Giant Complacency is clutching it's throat and gasping... the Great Reconciliation is beginning. There are ample resources to validate this much corruption and commonsense to push the box it is contained in off the cliff and redistribute for a saner, calmer, unilaterally sustainable globe.

rail recession update

We've had three consecutive quarters of severe drop in rail traffic. Traffic actually started dropping 6 quarters ago but it is easily seen on a chart beginning in October 2015 (total traffic for 2015 was less than 2014).

"WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jul. 6, 2016 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported weekly U.S. rail traffic, as well as volumes for June 2016.

Carload traffic in June totaled 1,245,025 carloads, down 7 percent or 93,687 from June 2015. U.S. railroads also originated 1,295,240 containers and trailers in June 2016, down 5.6 percent or 76,920 units from the same month last year. For June 2016, combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations were 2,540,265, down 6.3 percent or 170,607 carloads and intermodal units from June 2015.

In June 2016, six of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with June 2015. These included: grain, up 13.8 percent or 12,982 carloads; miscellaneous carloads, up 17 percent or 4,569 carloads; and waste and nonferrous scrap, up 16.4 percent or 2,907 carloads. Commodities that saw declines in June 2016 from June 2015 included: coal, down 16.4 percent or 73,194 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 22.2 percent or 15,415 carloads; and crushed stone, gravel and sand, down 6.6 percent or 7,727 carloads.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 2.3 percent or 20,493 carloads in June 2016 from June 2015.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first 26 weeks of 2016 was 6,295,216 carloads, down 12.3 percent or 886,579 carloads, while intermodal containers and trailers were 6,713,003 units, down 2.1 percent or 147,056 containers and trailers when compared to the same period in 2015. For the first six months of 2016, total rail traffic volume in the United States was 13,008,219 carloads and intermodal units, down 7.4 percent or 1,033,635 carloads and intermodal units from the same point last year.

"Rail traffic remains relatively weak, with slightly better coal volumes in June offset by continued weakness in intermodal caused in part by an inventory overhang and global economic uncertainty," said AAR Senior Vice President of Policy and Economics John T. Gray. "Because current economic indicators are presenting a mixed picture, it's not clear if railroads should be pessimistic or cautiously optimistic about the near- to medium term."

Chart can be seen in the link below:

https://www.aar.org/Pages/Freight-Rail-Traffic-Data.aspx#monthlyrailtraffic

Pension Investment Update

I read this morning that Bank of America (among others) transitioned all their client pension funds to US Treasury instruments. The yield is almost negligent so those funds won't be gaining value in the markets.

Today's Dow finished UP 78 points. Can anyone tell me anything motivating stock gains besides direct Federal Reserve fake money infusions?

The new normal

Eight years ago, a person would have been mocked if he/she suggested that the main driving force behind price discovery was central banks buying bonds and stock. Today it's openly acknowledged, even boasted about, by major central banks.
"Whatever it takes" includes false data reporting. So a combination of Central Banks, politicians, and the MSM all being on the same page, combined with a clueless public, has made market making (manipulation) acceptable.
MSN had an article today predicting that the market will soar due to people with damaged credit from 2008 being eligible for new credit again!
It will be difficult to establish sane economic policy after such a long period of insanity. For now, insanity is accepted as normal and healthy. Dishonest politicians are considered acceptable. Excess debt is considered a virtue. Personal accountability and belief in God is considered ignorant. How many "likes" on facebook matters more.

Yellen Says The Economy Is "Strong"

I was fascinated by the sudden surge in job creation. Where? What jobs? Who got hired? One person commented that I was "lazy" for not looking those facts up in the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports (data). Guess what... I did and those facts were not there. A growing illumination is-- the same select people have job-jumped so many times in the past 8 years to create THESE data figures. More broadly, long term unemployment has risen monthly so that it is now the majority. Even in vital areas there are vacancy signs in commercial storefronts and some of those signs are aging. Employers are again mass terminating, but the media does not advertise it.

Why would Ford offer incentives on the outrageously (reportedly) popular F150 truck if it in fact was? Why would the 30-year mortgage rate fall to an all-time record low if we had a strong economy? Those two are in diametric oppose, not congruent alignment. I thought it bizarre that JP Morgan Economists would make noteworthy a $1.3 Trillion (USD) fake money printing on Thursday and then literally ONLY JPM and Goldman Sachs led the 250 point faked bull run seen on Friday. Financial corruption is getting blatant and yet... the majority are fixated on Racism, Police Profiling and Hate Crimes... while just a few individuals working collectively are destroying the same world the majority live in. It's apparently "PC" to voice concern over social injustices while one's own family succumbs to destitution and governments borrow so much that the likelihood of a net paycheck with ANY money in it is getting slim.

The crazy part is-- Yellen has ZERO credibility now. She hasn't said anything believable in years and obviously an irresponsible criminal level money printing scam is not generating recovery. It's fueling Armageddon. The Brexit vote came and now "a woman" will lead Britain... not a qualified candidate or a person of this or that credential and skill set... a woman. Yellen is "a woman" (I think). I'm not sure what the significance is. Globe-wide, every nation needs COMPETENT leaders... not group spew.

The lights are flickering...

Of course the economy is strong

Just look at some of the headline stories this week:

-World Trade Organization’s New Global Trade Gauge Points Weaker

-UK trade deficit widens in May

-German exports plunge: ‘Performance not champion-like’

-France’s State Budget Deficit Widens to EUR65.7 Billion in May

-German Manufacturing Turnover Falls In May

-China Said to Consider Aid Package for Struggling State Firms

-China Should Rein In Wage Increases, Official Says

-The big bank bloodbath: losses near half a trillion dollars

-Central Banks Still Intervene in Currency Markets Despite Weakened Effect

-China’s innovation economy a real estate bubble in disguise?

-Plunge in German industry output points to weaker growth in second quarter

-Lacklustre global demand may impact India’s growth: Moody’s

And on and on it goes. http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/

Why did the dow surge on Friday? Because we added another couple hundred thousand fry-cook, bar tender, and pole dancer jobs.

Beyond The Horizon...

There are very troubled times: politically, socially and economically not only in Europe but in the world too. In addition, there is this bloody summer that melts the asphalt, liquefy the news and burns the brain. But I am on vacation (9 days left) next to water and what I do is to take care more of things to do in, at, by and next to the sea, than to care of news.
Who cares about news details nowadays?
OK, for the moment, the big things are happening.

1. London Stock Exchange and the Deutsche Boerse braced for row over headquarters after their merge.
2. The red loans in Italian banks mount 360 billion euro. At least 10 of them are in need of recapitalization and getting ready to apply for some 116 billion euro in ECB loans asap. The banks have the potential to drag Europe yet into another crisis.
3. The German Deutsche Bank does not feel well either.
4. In UK two Prime ministers saw their reputation to have been eliminated within two weeks. David Cameron via the Brexit referendum and ex PM Tony Blair via the Chilcot Report that says UK went to war in Iraq in 2003 on the basis of flawed intelligence that went unchallenged.
5. Not to mention the polical future of British Boris, Farage and Corbyn or EC's Juncker.

When Britain is done with its politicians, then it would come time for German Finance Minister to resign, followed by Merkel, and Rajoy.
A consequence of political change in Europe, something like, paraphrasing Leonard Cohen:
First we take London, then we take Berlin.

It is too hot to make plans on how to change the leadership in Europe. Mid-summer is certainly much too bad time to make strategy plans. Only rough outlines. Drafts. Short paragraphs. Key words. Titles.
News? What news?
Who cares about other news? Let's go swimming!

vacation?

What is the meaning of this word today. In the states it means if you have a "good" job that pays ~40k/yr, your employer MIGHT allows you 10-15 of personal days/yr that most people use the majority of for sick or personal appointments and emergencies.
Sitting on a beach chair while watching the sunset is something from a bygone era or only seen in television commercials.
Of course most new jobs have no paid time for being off so I feel fortunate.
The jobs in the states that have vacation time are either very upper end jobs or government jobs whose vacation time is paid for by taxes from lesser paid private employees that don't get a vacation.
I have to admit that European vacations are much different than the rest of the world. Enjoy it while it lasts because it won't last much longer for the vast majority.
Most business owners throughout the world today say "If I can get by without you for two weeks then I obviously don't really need you".
Not trying to be mean, but the European vacation along with generous unfunded pension programs (worldwide) will soon meet the fate of the current Greek tragedy being played out today.
I imagine that we'll revert to a time from past centuries which means no paid vacation.

Recharge... Don't Troll For Exposure

I disagree with NeOH on "vacation". In spite of all that is happening [to me] I still value it. I can take a day in my backyard and be "on vacation" if I use it to my advantage and actually relax. I will take time in the Summer to settle in to a deep sleep in open air (shaded from the global warming that isn't happening according to Big Oil) and use the natural energy around me to recharge. Cost: Free. Benefit: Too numerous to list.

Writing about lists... in your bullet points, NeOH, is the nearly Half-Trillion in bank losses (THIS YEAR). A lot of people are all over Facebook with condemnation of shootings apparently based on Hatred. Few grasp that Big Media was once indicted in England for stealing the cell phone of a killed kidnap juvenile so they could tap it for stories. I hardly think we are in a random event arena today. Anybody hear any more about the Panama Papers revelation? There are scores of well-known people engaged in a superiority complex terror act meant to keep them afloat while the rest of us die in the moat.

- Janet Yellen won't raise the bank rate because Fed member banks will tank for good this time as she does it.
- Global entity debt exceeds $5 Quadrillion and rising.
- In 18 US states- wealth took 100% of the QE allotted there.
- The $500 BILLION in charge offs is almost entirely Energy Sector commercial debt.
- We've closed banks for less losses and those were more solvent than today's big banks.
- The Global FAS Board says NO American Fed-member bank has met required reserves thresholds. NONE.
- Over 40 nations globe-wide have defaulted on their debt YET Goldman Sachs was a leader in Friday's BS rally.
- Obama has outright refused to answer direct questions about the state of our America economy.
- We endure 24 global war fronts- all in oil countries. The "G" nations are not winning any of them.
- A robot was used to take down the Dallas sniper. A robo-cop.
- 78% of Americans believe their government is corrupt.
- 99% of Americans are STILL waiting on a recovery from the 2008 caused-collapse and terror seizure.
- After 2008, global wealth usurped nearly 100% of tangible value repossessed assets in closed-bid auctions.
- There are 100 million long term unemployed in America, 50+ million working multiple low-pay jobs in areas below their skill level or in struggling oppressed small businesses. The average 30-something has YET to hold a single job down for more than 2 years, in a relevant non-tech position, has not paid off their college debt and cannot do basic life-requirement tasks without looking at their i-Phone every 120 seconds.

My Vacation Update

" Oh no, not a credit rating downgrade!..." our Australian friend exclaimed reading the news here in Lampedusa, where the sky is still up there in the sky although a little cloudy today.
" Oh no, the government is claiming it has to increase the intensity of its austerity plans..oh no!"
Australia now on negative watch. So what!
The media is trying to whip a sense of gravity over the S&P decision. The reality is that nothing will happen. The rating is irrevelant and the media should just ignore any press release these corrupt organizations put out. They are only designed to advance the profitability of the agency and should be subject to tight product quality scrutiny. The rasulting fines for incompetence would put the companies out of business.

I am still working while I am on vacation. I have been asked to write something about the Chilcot Report as soon as possible.
Why don't you have your Chilcot Report?

Timing Is Everything...

http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/the-report/

I find it amazingly fascinating to be as censored and suppressed as most of us are. The interesting part now is-- a battle will escalate to illuminate the hidden wimps behind this Global Economic Domination game. For a fact, global "best" are not playing the game, they are victims of it. As soon as the illumination occurs, me-thinks a lot of big bad paper and button pushers get extincted.

The next trick... a fair and just redistribution of a balanced and stable currency flow validated by actual work and not investment fodder whatsoever. In spite of all my detractors over all these years... it is conceivable now that closing the major banks, ending all central banks and getting RID of stock and bond markets globe-wide is an action of highest validity and priority. Unplug the thugs... see them feeble.

Your Own Chilcot Against Bush Was Written Long Ago

I found your own Chilcot. The articles of impeachement were introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives by Congressman Dennis Kucinich on June 9, 2008.
What the US needs now is action not a 7-year-"investigation".

Little is more corrosive of democracy than impunity. When politicians do terrible things and suffer no consequences, people lose trust in both politics and justice. They see them as instruments deployed by the strong against the weak. Since the First World War, no prime minister has done something as terrible as Tony Blair's invasion of Iraq. It flung the whole region into chaos, chaos which has been skillfully exploited by terror groups.

Justice is inseperable from democracy. If a prime minister can avoid indictment for waging aggressive war, the entire body politic is corrupted. Is it any wonder that so many people have given up on it?
The Chilcot report is utterly damning. But it's still not justice.

Something Evil This Way... Comes

The Giant Complacency

- there was a massive hollow arrogant confidence in the Remain vote on the Brexit as markets closed in Britain, but it was the worker vote after banker hours that pushed the Exit. That screwed up the algorithmic formula people and a whole lot of "data". Friday saw $2 Trillion leave the American Dow... we now have a valid "mark" for how much other days of bailing have cost our future. $2 Trillion = 600 points. The Dow was once at 6,000 now 18,000. If we do the easy math... 12,000 points is $48 TRILLION in fake printed money JUST bailing the Dow. In 1998, there was only $50 to $60 Trillion in currencies globe-wide. IF there are 10,000 tiny points of light in play today for greed mongering wealth... the figure of more than $5 Quadrillion in unsubstantiated global debt (as another currency), money stuck in markets and dark pool exchanging behind the public knowledge.

- Word is that Japan has offered to bail Europeans again. Consider that Japan has not been a solvent nation since the 1980's and there is no actual reconciliation today identifying how much fake money comes out of Japan. None of the prior bailing actually trickled anywhere south of the False Elite hoarding the subsidies... so... what exactly occurs when more fake money enters rigged and manipulated stock markets and big businesses that choke enterprise?

- The helicopter drop. While I love your description of Friedman, I will add that Andrew Dickson White chronicled a successor device when a financially wrecked France fake printed bail money that actually had the reverse impact on the False Elite. Today... Putin mocked the US/Europe relationship (no EU leader took John Kerry's phone call) because even he recognizes how silly constant bailing with this much economic deterioration really is. Europe has no pulse, the USA looks to vote-in Trump and 2017 will be the year both Parliament and Congress go to work fixing themselves and the corruption they wrought on an entire world.

- She asked for less ego. I pray I can do that. The times they are a changing... and few grasp what that means or will mean. Readers... LOOK at what is the most manipulated (besides money itself) and declare it a commodity with future opportunity. The towers will be falling and no one in the machines can successfully drive them manually. A Giant Complacency exists, with competence lulled out and obedience pumped through veins of brain drained zombies. Shift happens and is about to.

- There is a push now to complete the British exit from the European Union at light speed because if it is not all done by American Election Day, we know 2 parties that will be. Shift happens and when it does, it illuminates. We will be shocked regardless of how numb we have become to shocking things, once the lights turn on the Cockroach Ball. By my estimation (who am I)... 95% of the current wealth in the world will evaporate before November. What happens after is anyone's guess.

Timing...

The Dow lost another 260 points today. Call that the knee-jerk reaction. Notably, account statements roll out next week with a National Holiday in it-- so those statements will absolutely draw out more sellers. European and British stock Indices tanked 2% or more today as well.

Curious article about the Federal Reserve changing course. A massive HIKE in the bank rate utterly ends the constant bailing of dead things while also calling out fake things. Just above this post I had mentioned the anomaly factor in Revolution Era France where over-printing actually had a counter effect and was instrumental in wealth collapsing and ordinary people sharpening pitchfork tines.

22% of British Isles entities threaten to exit. 35% more say they immediately stopped hiring. Sounds like terrorism because NONE of the CEO's making those statements actually Founded anything. They are administrative pariah easily replaced and likely need to be. Can anyone PLEASE tell me what is MADE in England? If comes to mind that nothing is MADE there except money in investing and overlord-ship. Kind of tells you that rats sense foreboding and are ready to jump off the ship. Meanwhile ordinary citizens are looking forward to sustainability.

I'll say it again... shift happens.

The Diseased Liberal Mind

We want to believe we are free but the truth is that we have been in a prison called neoliberalism. The EU is one key institution in a transnational neoliberal club. Our economy is structured to enforce neoliberalism whoever ostensibly runs the country.
This is why the debate about Brexit was never about values and principles - it was about money. It still is. The Remainers are talking only about the threat to their pensions. The Brexiters are talking only about the role of immigrants in driving down wages. And there is a good reason: because the EU is part of the walls of the economic prison that has been constructed all around us.
Our lives are now only about money.Never about principles and values.

We live in a world of opportunity - the opportunity to use the insight generated through the multiple crises humanity finds itself in to transit into a much more liveable, sustainable and equitable society.
But things are getting worse and there is no guarantee that change will lead us into a better future in the next few decades.
The one element which influences all people nearly everyday and is behind just about each and every crisis is the theory and practice of current economics. We live in one of the most important period of change, but we also live in a time of multiple crises and negative developments and trends. Unemployment, inequality, the financial crisis, biodiversity depletion, degradation of ecosystem, climate change - you name it, we have it.

We should all team up to create an exiciting drive towards a transition into a sustainable and equitable world - one so exciting that artists, creative professionals, intellectuals, concerned citizens and movements engage in a peaceful revolution to create a sustainable, fair world. And it will require personal commitments - no matter how small.
Our theory and practice of economics do not rest on natural laws, but on our values. It is our choice whether to build a world which can nurture and feed generations for hundreds of years. It is our choice whether we want a world where billions live in poverty and where climate change already risks our grandchildren's future. There is no natural law which compels us to overuse and deplete resources.

The values guiding the course of our society are not the ones which can lead us into a better world. Some of the values we have lived by for many decades have led humanity straight into a world of separation, isolation, depletion and systematic crises.
The narrative humanity is living today is a fantasy that borders on illusion. While the world fantasizes, problems mount.
The values underlying the expansion of the finance industry, which seemed so sexy to many, are now perceived as not only wrong, but also as obscene and damaging to society as a whole.
However, the most powerful and decisive driver behind what is going wrong is the current economic paradigm. If there is anything that comes close to a magic button, it is economics.
Economics is not a natural science. It delivers what we want it to deliver.
Higher education is still organized around old thinking. Nearly all universities teach the concept of old economics and it is no wonder that the new thinking finds it difficult to gain ground when students are still being taught outdated concepts and thereby delay the transition to a new economy.

Curiosity: England, another Brexit. Second Brexit in four days. England 1 Iceland 2. Iceland win and sends England out of Euro 2016.

The Diseased Mind. I am a Noodle.

Neoliberalism is half the problem. Neoconservativism is the other. Two sides with the majority of the middle moving like zombies from one "side" to the other based almost entirely on steerage media. The common denominator is not the politic but the education.

My apologies to certain degrees... the people who obtained them were remarkable before the classroom and managed to keep their commonsense intact. All others lacked commonsense or identity or maturity before becoming assimilated to the hollow-headed hall mentality or the Hive Mentality. We seem to be obsessed with identifying "talent" and have a whole societal structure built around something other than commonsense. You get commonsense from a life-altering and forced-to-think-openly ultimatum experience. To eat or die of starvation, to have loved and lost, to have and to hold only to set them free as the by-product of your nurturing, to be able to see forest not just trees...

The alternative to a classroom education is a real life experience one. I would rely more on the math skills of any street vendor than that of the highest mind at MIT. Why? The street vendor knows one mistake can cost him or her a dinner. The MIT twit is paid a salary to scribble dribble on a chalkboard before minds distracted by society and a handheld device. We value complacency in this era. There is nothing more dangerous than a complacent society on a round Earth... it only has two outcomes... voluntary or involuntary death. Complacent people do not create a Chaos to thrive in (variables create opportunity).

Educated people think linear dynamics. A + B = C because someone wrote that on a chalkboard. That isn't intellect it's train wreck thinking. Noodles are a difficult food to navigate with a knife (linear device). For all the high mind stuff in existence, the breadth of intelligence is limited to the dynamic rut it isolates itself in. To say it better-- smart people are narrow-minded. The more a smart person wanders away from the comfortable rut, the more they realize how little they know and set off (hopefully) to be challenged by the unknown. I have a degree. My MAJOR was NOT what it says on the diploma. My "major" was in learning how to learn and grasping what I have in front of me as educational fodder. I am a noodle... never existing straight but capable being so if you drain the water from my form. Anything linear cannot be a noodle so it can never be as broadly smart. Education is not what you learn in a classroom, it's what you do with that classroom knowledge (including abandoning it) once you are in the Real World.

Why state this? The current fear propaganda about the BREXIT is based on linear thinking. If we travel toward the New World, we will fall off the edge into the mouths of monsters, because the world is flat and at the center of the universe. Remember that from Christopher Columbus era intellects? If nations "exit" from Hive collectives, it will crash financial tyrannical control, create Chaos, and from Chaos we get? OPPORTUNITY. Let the era of the Street Vendor begin and the Giant Complacency fall into history. Let the inept become broke so they free minds up to ACTUAL education.

Imagine what happens. Freedom rings. Art, Music, Literature, Invention, Innovation, Prosperity, Creation all begin to happen anew again... because history ALWAYS repeats... and not just the bad stuff. Renew. Restore. Revive. Be alive. Time is a wastin'... take a vacation from linear thinking and watch New World Order flush.

I really think we are missing the point

The article by Bill Gross is interesting. The one part I agree with is that the past 40 yrs have not been normal. I think he described it as being a grey or black swan as far as return on investments concerning paper, or maybe the more correct term would be digital "assets". He correctly describes this as being due to cheap access to credit and a few other things.
Bill does not mention that this time period was also the same time that average Joe and Jane were also contributing huge amounts of money into tax deferred mutual funds (which Bill Gross profited handsomely from). This previous sentence brings up a couple of topics. One of those would be the loss of taxes which you mentioned in your comment above. The second would be the fact that when average Jane and Joe became active in the "market",the market then became an important part of the "economy" to the average person. Economics and Politics are interconnected and since people are so involved in the market, politicians must keep the market elevated if they want to keep their jobs. They are inclined to appoint market friendly central bankers,Treasurers, and advisers that will "do whatever it takes" to keep markets stable (stable means perpetually rising in fed speak)". It turned out to be a great mutual relationship for both politician and Wall St. Let's call an ace and ace. The Clinton's were bankrupt after Lewinsky and today they aren't. Not bad for being pretty much unemployed for 16 yrs.
Government politicians weren't the only ones making self destructive decisions. Union pension funds bought positions in offshore companies that would gradually land up doing the work that their members had been doing. People in self directed plans invested heavily in foreign funds. NAFTA and other trade agreements were passed with little discussion or opposition so as not to upset markets.
So we ended up cannibalizing ourselves which is bad enough but even worse, we sacrificed our neighbors and future posterity. Most jobs being created today don't pay very well. Certainly not enough to participate in self directed plans that require an employee contribution. As you mentioned above, volume is low.
The article in voxeu is interesting but not too unexpected in a world where perpetual growth (rising stock market) is considered by many to be the only viable choice to pursue. This is where I think we are missing an important alternative. Negative growth can result in a healthier happier world. This is possible once Wall St and other casinos are removed from the main st economy. Let inflation/deflation cycles go through their cyclical course without central bank interference. Their are too many unintended consequences when we let a group of people along with politicians and neocapitalists (or communists) micromanage economy. It doesn't matter if it was Volcker or Bernanke.
The world has been brainwashed into thinking the bigger the better. I don't think we are ready for that much unification yet. If France doesn't want to buy engineered food products from the USA then I don't think any treaty should force them to.
What is seldom mentioned is that the planet is in the midst of a major extinction event. The majority of it is man made. The world can't afford constant economic growth at this time. The planet needs a rest until the coomon sense part of man's brain catches up with the technical part.
FWIW, about the photo from 1909 that I posted earlier. Most of the people seem genuinely happy and smiling. I don't think a similar group of those age would have such a genuine happy look in 2016.

We Need To Go In A Very Different Direction

" The world can't afford constant economic growth..."

There is not a single mainstream politician out there who is calling for an end to growth even though it is growth that has been the cause of the systemic problems, such as global warming and resource depletion, that are at the root of all other social discord. This is the main reason no political process can fix anything. All the players fail to recognize the real problems. Neoliberal capitalism is the real cancer in society. And the belief that it somehow is the saviour of humanity is mental illness in human beings.

All of major institutions are in some degree of failure or at least dysfunction: ruination of young peoples'abilities to think and create meaningful artifacts for society. Massive failures in the science and engineering fields where money has trumped the pursuit of knowledge for its own sake. Scientists are caught in a trap. Most want to pursue knowledge but they can't do it without financial support. They can't get money unless they are doing something that someone else think is useful. And young budding scientists and economists in universities can't hope to get tenure unless they publish in volume rather than quality.
One might maintain hope but it would be best to be prepared to adapt, if that is even possible.

" I don't think a similar group of those age would have such a genuine happy look in 2016".

Where is America headed? A good way to do so is to take a hard look at America's children. More than 8.3 million American children and adolescents require psychiatric drugs. There are many other symptoms of social breakdown among America's children. Eating disorders for example. If eating disorders are the bane of America's young girls, violence is a more common problem for its boys.

Within almost every family, the economic pressures on parents rob them of time with even their own children. Young children are relegated to day-care centers, while older children are left in the company of video games, the Internet, or the corporate sponsors of their favorite television shows. Time spent in nature has all but disappeared.

This is a new phenomenon something that has never happened before: a culture determined by technological and economic forces.

That 1909 happy group of children is telling us we need to go in a very different direction.

All Done Here.

I have to stop posting here. I have been asked out of love and I choose to comply.

Let me finish this way. We KNOW where we are at. The psychopaths have extended all the credit possible to all the ways it cannot possibly generate economy and failure is eminent. Sadly, everyone who posts (rails against machine and complacency) was censored today. Pretty obvious that New World Order is: Lawyer, Gay, Black and Transvestite. There is more Press today on a nightclub massacre than there ever was on the mass termination os 84% of breadwinners for families and the subsequent demise of marriages, families and the America Dream, Way of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. It became all about psychopaths and narcissism.

There are no economic pluses... flat out-- every sector is failing from gross irresponsible manipulation. Where is a people headed when all factors supporting economy are usurped by nutcases who want wealth and irresponsibility to surpass commonsense?

I BELIEVE I will be fine. I have FAITH that my life after posting FACTS for 8 years will be sustainable.

Who am I? Until 2007, I was a family man with a wife and 3 daughters. They were smart, talented and headed for a good life with strong mental and character assets. I was destroyed FIRST by corrupt employers and then by a bad marriage to a person who valued my income over "me". I had a degree, I earned it after gaining a career. That was destroyed by the Obama Era. I have eaten over-aged food, lived on nothing, foraged, thrifted and saw 3,600 target resumes fail after 20+ headhunters once left messages on my voice-mail with new position offers-- every day. I am not replaced in society today... terrorists dwell where I once performed and they do not. I am not dead. You will be seeing me in writing soon. Books. The pendulum swings and it slices through what boggled us all for 8+ years. The post-cataclysmic Earth will know no psychopaths and honor those who give all to right us. It is more a time when the most dedicated give all to correct was is toxic. Don't count me among them, I will not do it. I was not put here to save the lazy, shallow, hollow and dense.

I count you as my best of friends but do not know any of you.. really. Good bye my loves. Live well.

I respect your choice...for love.

I have just read what V_L has written.
I admire his sense of love for & of others.
It seems this choice has been at a request, be that spiritual or real; I respect it.

What I have learned here has been the real world learning that we (I believe) were intended to experience- with who, what & where; intelligent social interaction as humans.
The wealth of information and experience our friend has and did share is irreplaceable & unique to him. We have all shared, learned, and interacted in a time when the initial forefront of this transformative reality was just a hint in the air and coming to the arena- way back on the MSN message board (controversial at times with... "the conquer"), including the Tsunami. The amount of growth and interest there was incredible and our friend V_L was there as well, thanks to you all, I grew.
It is said that in a lifetime an individual affects 25,000, his choice of behavior; shows character, his positive efforts from my experience have affected many already.

I will miss him.

I know he has been a great father to the daughters, we have been able to share with him many things: the real banker career, the clothing business, trade challenges, community employment for others by his efforts, the music, purchase of the house (the cold 1st winter), the new beginnings, his personal intuitive growth & guidance and more; yes, we hope he will decide to return to continue to share with us, as we all experience this life time event in time, place and amongst people.
In my time here I look for all you to further my understanding at a level I may not be able to experience here in my area, I found it; for that I have been very grateful.
I too realize I have not always been able to satisfy the educational level of some, but every one was patient, verses dismissing (or politely!).
I have read everything O & G posts in links, I have too always applied what I have learned from V_L as well.
Thanks for calling us, friends.
That too, in this world- may be few.

PS If anyone hears from him, please suggest this book for his grandchildren: The Twelve Gifts of Birth by Charlene Costanzo.
It always reminded me of him.

V_Lexit

I can't believe V_Lexit is really happening. I hope he will regret his decision and I hope he will be back with us very shortly.

A lot of Brits who voted for Brexit in the crucial referendum now say they regret their decision.

An addiction

Dropping out of sight is not easily done after my own seven or eight years - and V-L has a few more years than I. Duffminster Times is still my home page, I see the site several times a day as I pass through to the 'net, Vox, WSJ's reporting on market activity - (that massive volume of seven and a half billion transactions last Friday following the Brexit vote !!!), or wherever. Haven't the heart to switch to a neutral zone.

I've even jotted down notes to organize thoughts for my own benefit. Such as: disappontments in Janet Yellen's last broken-record PR address to the Senate committee; or correcting the mispercetpions or misleading suggestions about a non-existent monetary policy by Milton Friendman and his "helicopter drop" which econoomists have latched onto recently. Have they all forgotten how to read?

Such inaccuracy is aggravating and requires a strong dose of restraint to resist reporting the truth. In Friedman's case, the mention was no more than a fleeting, passing remark which could have referred to a magic carpet or a blind stork. . . or any other convenient passing fantasy. . . Coupling the concept with the magic of Friedman's memory suddenly endowed a casual phrase with a certitude and importance that probably caused Friedman's memory to squirm from discomfort.

I may post either or both collections of notes yet, but out of stubbornness, I'll resist a while longer.

I do understand how the addiction to posting can become a controlling influence. We've had our great list of casualties as a result. The addiction does not fir into a family atmosphere.

I'm sure he sneaks in on the site once in a while. I do. . . . And, I believe, so does our absent host, Duffminster. Although the longer the resistance, the lower the priority and lesser the urge to return.

Leave Well Alone

Do the Leave campaigners care about the misuse of public money? I am talking about farm subsidies. Farm subsidies? They would more accurately described as land subsidies, as they are paid by the hectare. The more land you own or lease, the more public money you are given, so the richest people in Europe clean up. Oh, not just in Europe. Russian oligarchs, Saudi princes and Wall Street bankers have bought up tracts of European farmland, thus qualifying for the vast sums we shovel into their pockets. Why is no word raised against these benefit tourists?
This is arguably the most regressive distribution of public money in modern times.
The poorest farmers are excluded: you cannot claim subsidies unless you own or lease at least five hectares.
This racket is perhaps the strongest of all arguments for leaving the European Union, but the Brexiters' silence resounds.

There is another reason for calling these payments land subsidies: you don't have to produce any food to receive them. Your land just has to look agricultural, which means bare. Among "ineligible features"listed in Westminister's version of the European rules are ponds, wide hedges, regenerating woodland, reedbeds, thriving salt marsh and trees sufficient to form a canopy. The Common Agricultural Policy is a 55bn euros incentive to destroy wildlife habitats and cause floods downstream.
All the good things the EU has done for nature are more than counteracted by this bureaucratic idiocy. Millions of hectares of wildlife habitat in the EU are threatened by this rule.

Take Romania for example. Hundreds of thousands of hectares of wood pasture. A mosaic of flowering meadows, marshes and trees. A profusion of life.
All this is now on the brink. Across Romania, farmers are beginning to realize that they can make money simply by cleansing the land.
Many of the trees and other rich wildlife habitats are classified as "ineligible features", which need to be destroyed if farmers are to claim subsidies for the land on which they grow, not for any productive purpose, but just to meet the European rules.

But people do not release themselves from the power of money by leaving the EU. They just exchange one version for another, another that is even worse. This is not an inspiring position from which to vote Remain. It is a coherent one. But if we are to live in Romania, we should insist on sweeping change.
Daylight robbery and mass destruction: the EU is supposed to prevent them, not to deliver them.

not sustainable

Unfortunately, an economy based upon perpetual growth, unrealistic growth at that, results in severe degradation of the environment and depletion of natural resources. So we land up eating our own tail.
I have seen sustainability models that show a world population of several billion more than our present population could survive healthily and happily on ~25% of the worlds habitable land mass (includes agriculture, industry etc) and the other 75% of the land mass could be left in its natural state. It will take a radical change in mankind's priorities in order for such a system to be acceptable.
I've seen it all my life here in the states. The American dream is to move out to the rural outer ring suburbs, own an acre or two of land, and be surrounded by unspoiled woodland. Of course, the unspoiled woodlands then get developed into acre plots shortly afterward. Everybody wants to be the last person to move to the country.
We've had a preview of what happens when several billion Asians are suddenly able to afford wild ocean fish. Economic laws don't really discuss sustainability of a healthy planet. The model sells pleasure which people confuse with happiness.
I see the poll results from Britain this morning. A month from now it'll probably be forgotten.

priority

"I have to stop posting here. I have been asked out of love and I choose to comply."
This website has always discussed rational priorities and your decision certainly sounds like a priority.
We love you and honor your decision even though you will be dearly missed. I look forward to the books you refer to.
We've been lucky to have been able to have this forum (a million thanks to Duff). I don't know how long it will last. So many sites that I have been reading are being shut down because the administrators have given up on fighting repeated and constant malware attacks. My guess it's a desperate attempt by a few big moneyed interests that prefer a society that is obsessed with the Kardashian's and other NWO distractions.
We've discussed a lot during the nearly ten past years. My only regret is that I wish more minds would have been stimulated and less complacent. It's hard for people to become engaged when events seem to move slowly, MSM reports little of significance, and "trusted" leaders keep assuring them that everything will be fine as long as they explicitly follow their directions. Unfortunately, many are realizing that the "trusted" leaders aren't trustworthy. The result may be poor decisions by main st man directed at both the guilty and the innocent. Meanwhile, the NWO is also fearful of losing their grip and their retaliatory actions will be brutal and cruel.
So, we may experience some chaotic times. The best we can do is try to do the right thing while comforting the innocent.
Again I thank you. You were a moderator that welcomed me, a very naive person when it came to economic matters. You also allowed those that weren't parroting the party line to post and as a result I was able to learn from them. I came to you about ten years ago thinking most of you were conspiracy nuts. I investigated what you said and found you were not.

"There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance—that principle is contempt prior to investigation."

Good luck to you my dear friend.

We Can't Change Yesterday But We Can Change Tomorrow

"I have to stop posting here"

You can't do that.

Very Well Done, NeOH!

All true!

There is a lesson in nature for every man made event. This one is... When too much ice and snow accumulate at the North and South Poles... Our tilted axis planetary position shifts. This applies to hoarded useless accumulated wealth too.

The majority of the world is reliant and complacent... Two aspects Man can never be for long or we face that extinction prospect. There are red fruits growing wild in my new feral backyard. Are they wild strawberries? A taste could kill or satisfy. This conundrum will become more and more what creates future or extinction. We did it to ourselves.

As the hipsters fall, they have no survival ability at all. You are correct about the Clintons. You know what ordinary people are observing now... We can recover Clintons but not an actual economy. That isn't going to go well going forward.