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Jobs and the NYSE
Reason has no standing in diagnosing how the NYSE market (or other major markets) responds to news. . . or any other bit of information.
The media reports data and statistics in detail endlessly, providing as much descrip0tion of what is transpiring locally, domestically or globally as interested parties can digest. And, we listen to the "experts" predict consequences on the basic of a tangled diagnosis of factors which are reported through indices, trade organizations, or the general news services, all augmented with charts and graphs ad nauseum. At days end we doze off with analyses churning through our imaginations attmepting to fit everything together into one significant analysis that would give us a leg up on the competition tomorrow morning, wake up still mulling the wealth of information we've culled through, turn onthe PC and discover, as we have the past two days, that (for an outstanding example) jobs have not "firmed up" as diagnosed by the Fed or the expert specialized news reporters since new applicants for unemployment compensation, predicted to come in at 260K, actually reached 275K - a bummer, and new jobs created last month, which "experts" predicted in the vicinity of 205K, actually was well below that at 160K.
Double whammy, is it not?
What happened? Did things suddenly sour since Monday when the economy was proclaimed to have hit bottom and was now working its way up? Do the "experts" have privileged access to special stats? Oh, five days intot he new month, you say? Has there been a sudden, unexpected reversal of fortunes? Something unexpected and inexplicable has occurred? Have stored up figures been released that have been set aside last month for one technical reason or another? Or, are the reliable sources not discussing facts and hard stats?
Take your pick. Or, better yet, supply your own plauasible guess.
What prompts these questions is the fact that we expected markets to rue the day due to fading figures countering the optimism we were contemplating last night just as we dozed off. The market players feinted a decline at the opening and then through the day boosted the major indices higher and higher toward an unexpected finish near a point twice the size of the initial drop. We gonethroughthe wringer awaiting the final optimistic report since we still have an hour of trading remaining.
At one time the market floor was bustling with traders, bowling each other over in a selling frenzy; now, except for times whenn the TV cameras and some notable peronslaities make an appearance on the floor, the floor is relatively empty and those present meander through the dull silence waiting for something to start te day. It does not appear to be an active arena, nor a place where decisions are made. That more than likely is in some conference rooms off-site and well out of camera and microphone range, isolated from prying eyes and inquisitive minds. And, those that belong to reporters with deadlines to fill and nothing newsworthy to turn in - not privy to the real news and ratinale from those hard at work attempting to forge some hard reasoning that will explain the unexplainable - namely, how could the bad news generate a good market outcome for the day?
Judging from the dollars each rise and fall of an index point represents, an observer would be foolish to conclude that yesterdsay's news and today's market response are disconnected. It's assumed that readers here at Duff's Times are not uninitiates, have read the numerous references posted here to HFT (the super computer High Frequency inter-party Trading that makes money for insiders regardless pf whatever the general public does or does not do), or the "dark Pools" of other favorites - or the same special insiders whose actvity is profitable for brokers whatever they do with their high level betting games; or, that other isiders are anxious to get to the head of the line with whatever high level funds are offered to keep the level of optimism high among those investors who make a difference. Loss of interest by any of those parties spells disaster.
The other day we included reference to two Bloomberg articles which probed beneath the surface on the subjects of equities and commodities which was a cursory mention and description of Bloomberg's headlined "Six Charts Show Investors Don't Have Faith in U.S. Stocks" and China's frenzy over commodities which also demonstrates reluctance to rely on equities. So, equities should be in disfavor, should they not? Or, is that merely a come-on in an attmept to entice people away from stocks to allow the favorite insiders another head start of a half a lap or two on the general public?
Just what is someone trying to set up?
With the current debasement of the dollar -WHAT? - You don't believe the dollar has been debased? If no one other than the several thousand new billionaires can be offered for bait, just imagine how much frothing at the mouth the brokers trade is generating! Someone is anxius to strip the newly minted money away from the over-exuberant newbies! - Well, with the current debasement of the dollar well underway even multi-billionaires are concerned about whether they have enugh stock of currency dedicated to household expenses and whatever other discretions or indiscretions they may have in mind. Maintaining four or five households in select, high-rent districts globally, just with staff and normal maintenance is demanding. What about jobs and consumer goods? Haven't you heard, "Time heals all wounds. . . Are we still allowed to say that?"
Is that about the size of the levitation act being pulled by the special insider forces in equities and commodities? The size of the take in matters of days is just a few billion here and there, but give a week or a month of this and we are talking about appreciable sums. It does mean more money being stripped from circulation and hindering the lower sectors and hampering recovery so expect more reversal of statistics and more disjointed responses on the markets. Insiders are not yet prepared to surrender their public display arenas in the global bourses.
Oh, yes, about those jobs reported down. . . Reuters concludes that