- Could our society implode on the race issue?
- Business becomes the villain? Is Hollywood Making money from Financial Crises?
- Limited best seller Inside Job: The Looting of the American Savings and Loans
- Now, AT&T, the once proud flagship of American commerce uses outright fraud to boost earnings
- Another New Thought: Helicopter money and fiscal rules
The latest news, April 29, 2016
Here is Reuters' take on the market this early P.M.:
Markets | Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:11pm EDT
WASHINGTON | By Lucia Mutikani
U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter to its slowest pace in two years as consumer spending softened and a strong dollar continued to undercut exports, but a pick-up in activity is anticipated given a buoyant labor market.
In a nutshell - there you have it! Rephrased - Employment statistics are good, but no one is buying.
How would we interpret that - and perhaps more important inwhat category? Gossip? Pipe dreams to influence public opinion? Repeat the lie often enough and everyone will believe it?
Built on these facts - for starters:
- One reporting facility - at this tiem of day - presents stats showing 85% of polled nations have the dollar in decline; meaning, everything is more expensive for the US consumer;
- First, Retail continues its march into the desert, head high and pockets empty; and Second, what are all the hard working people doing at their reconstituted jobs? Covering debts incurred during the past eight years? Building up reserves to carrythem through the glory years ahead?
- The Fed attempts assurances that the economy will look better a few months from now so the business community should hold off on expecting them to endorse our recovery path at this time - meaning, they pass on the interest raising propoosition the outlook is that good;
- The Fed will wait to see teh outcome of the failing Internatinal trade situation - meaning? - NO one needs our goods or is willing to accept the gamble of dealing with our debt supported trade technique, loaded with declining value dollar payoffs?;
- The dollar is still under seige; the indication at 1:11 P.M. - 85% of the polled nations inonelong-running set of statistics have other currencies faring better in the exchanges than the dollar - meanwhile, the conversion from dollars to gold is picking up as expected;
- China still has no answer for their major headache - no markets for their goods, and their stock markets have no dependable alternative support;
- Bank of Japan dropped ovee 600 points (about the equivalent of a similar drop in the DJIA - slightly larger than a 3.3% sudden drop.
BUT!! Our employment stats set up grounds for confidence bulding.
Main question: How reliable is our ability to diagnose economic problems?
Tiresome it is, but we are not emerging from the consensuses with viable options; stuck instead in the "soft patches" of our weak economies according to Janet Yellen, (who picks up on the February technical term used by Loretia Mester, the new Cleveland Fed Bank president). What oter reliable descriptor is available? Predictions are out of the question, economic data is insufficient, mathematical modeling has no power in these areas, and we've burned the bridges of communication with the public accustomed to more common language. The foundering Fed is lost, wandering through a torturous desert with no landmarks, exposed to a burning overhead sun that publicizes all "filler" explanations, but serves as a searing spotlight that reveals their total lack of options.
Wait! Just wait! Things will improve.
And, in the process of waiting what improvements can we expect for the future? This is not the time to begin tinkerng with the motor. No, it isn't, but if not now, when?
[To be continued.]