Submitted by Old and Gray on Fri, 06/10/2016 - 18:46
by John Muellbauer
John Muellbauer, Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College; Professor of Economics, Oxford University; and Senior Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School.
His article was posted on voxeu.org 10 June 2016
Couldn't resist this opening. Health advice takes a back seat for the moment.
There is one underlying truth that theorists disregard and it causes no end of trouble when new proposals are promoted from theory and are put into play.
Mark these words: I don't believe these O&G thoughts have been expressed in such precise terms previously.
Reason has no standing in diagnosing how the NYSE market (or other major markets) responds to news. . . or any other bit of information.
Here is Reuters' take on the market this early P.M.:
Markets | Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:11pm EDT
WASHINGTON | By Lucia Mutikani
U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter to its slowest pace in two years as consumer spending softened and a strong dollar continued to undercut exports, but a pick-up in activity is anticipated given a buoyant labor market.
Another conference, many competent economists participate, much learning distributed, no consensus except that it is "not working". Not only is that not scientific, but, if an honest, perceptive response is needed as to whether the economy is working or not, ask the next economically-untrained person encountered. As for voxeu.org -
Financial regulation: Not yet an efficient outcome
Angus Armstrong, E Philip Davis 22 April 2016
. . And the same tired tune is being replayed.
Two Chapters with headings tells the story in brief:
- Chapter one, Navigating a risky world;
- Chapter Two, Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Growth
Public debt rises. emerging markets falter, and no one buys from anyone, which tends to shut down production and curtail employment opportunities.
Martin Wolf of the Finanacial Times may well be asking a question of "Why?" when he expresses his opinion of Donald Trump as a -
Veteran Lender and Saldeck have been presenting thoughts on banks and their economic impact globally. Good reason is on their side. I culled through some of the papers of a few years ago and fell upon the Vicker’s Report of October, 2011 just about two weeks ago while moving one pile from one side of the room to another. The 356 paged report and responses seemed too timely a topic to call for mothballs, although it did rest undisturbed for a few years.
The response of the FOMC and the Fed Board of Governors can be heard now, "What do you expect from us, we can only respond to conditions."
Well, yes. (In retrospect again.) The chosen road at journey's start establishes momentum, only goes one way, and there are no "turnarounds."
We're trapped on the one way street and any attempt to reverse ourselves will be met with shredded tires and ruined transportation.
Frank Hyneman Knight, teacher extraordinaire!
Submitted by Old and Gray on Thu, 03/03/2016 - 10:38
Problems of here and now: Revisiting earlier economic thought.
Submitted by saldeck on Wed, 03/02/2016 - 05:22.
Finance ministers and central bankers met in China to discuss many of the problems for which they alone are responsable.
Neoliberal ideology has dominated world discourse. The mantra has been that the only viable policy for goverments and social movements was to give priority to something called the market.
Of course, allowing the market to prevail necessitated political action. The so-called market was never a force independent of politics.
Not too long ago the prediction was made here that we'll be on our way to witnessing nine figure deals in closings as the desire to grow to megalitihic proportions spreads through commerce. At the time we cited some eight figure deals halfway up the scale.
Bloomberg Futures are not reassuring given the earlier stock market performances in the orient and Europe.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 42 to 2,539; China's Straights Times was off 12.5 at 2,589. Since the high in the past 52 weeks of 3,507 last April 15th, that is a casual drop of 26%! Nothing to sneeze at.
Submitted by <Veteran_Lender on Mon, 02/08/2016 - 22:47.
Submitted by Eisenhower on Wed, 12/14/2011 - 14:24
The markets today are for day traders - and by day is meant some fraction of the day as many times over as possible during the period from 9:30 to 4:00.
Bloomberg headlines as of Monday, Feb. 1, 2016. Not optimistic at all!
Twitter Shares Jump on Report of Possible Silver Lake Deal
Feb 1, 2016
The Window to Buy Stocks Has Shut for Now: JPMorgan
Feb 1, 2016
Tracing Oil's Hypnosis of Stocks From Wealth Funds to Junk
Jan 31, 2016
Millennials Are Starting to Change the Stock Market
The articles, with a quick glance or two, do stimulate some serious thought in view of their underlying weaknesses; some that occur to O&G -
Since our last post was addressed toward an historical personality, perhaps we should extend the effort in the direction of another personality, not historical, but potentially so. . . and, that is toward the illustrious Donald Trump, a candidate for the office of President of the universe. . . or, still more!
Mariner Eccles, who at times seemed to be a pre-Keynes Keynesian (difficult to visualize), by uttering little snippets which Keynes expounded on at length, was dealt with at length in the O&G Central Bank and Monetary Policy, a series of some three dozen "chapters" viewing Fed development from its founding in 1913 through the thirties and WWII tomore recetn "adventures".
Apologies beforehand on my lack of working knowledge and familiarity with html and posting graphics on this site.
Nevertheless, a description is in order if it is only the second or third best means of conveying ideas. We've been through this in the tsunami, but a detailed step-by-step review may be worth the effort for new readers. Much of what is suggested here is common knowledge, but somehow escaping notice until we're deep into another recession or worse.
It should be interesting to see how the US Stock Markets put their recent program of misdirection to work from this point in time on. Do they entice the gullible back into the game long term, or is this no more than the hour or two of wandering in the wrong direction before the hammer descends and shuts off any hope of escaping a scalping?
The return of the deadly 403 block forces the post here in response to saldeck.
This week's performance of NYSE traders is primitive; whether that falls within the Lockean paradigm or not we'll set aside for the moment. . . but, there is a suggestion of going back in time and changing motivation.
The books need to be balanced, saldeck, - at least theoretically - to demonstrate if your proposition of the new BIG is feasible.
That balance is the answer to the query, "Who pays for it?"
A smll corner devoted to social greetings - a taste of the seacon.
It would seem that 0.25% increase is the panic response of someone backed into a corner and threatened.
It will get us nowhere.
Blythe Masters, the British beauty, exuding confidence, who played midwifery to the derivatives game, is now onto an expansion of the bitcoins fad. . . as though we need another means of creating havoc in our economies.
CNBC relayed a Reuters news article which claims that techniques reminiscent of Chinese hackers are being used to invade Google. The example displayed on the CNBC site Is nearly an exact duplicate of the notice O&G has encountered and the other members of Duff's posting members have reported.
We’re not alone in our experiences, impressions or perceptions. Some prominent names have very much the same outlook, but their thoughts are couched in different terms, passions and wording. There are no assurances that this exempts them from the tribulations we experience as we stumble through the weed infested gardens of Economics and Finance - all of which is the rsult of deliberate planning.
Over the weekend a "narrative" has surfaced. The narrative in this case is a last resort mechanism; everything else in the economists bag of tricks has been tried to no avail, so, - "What do we have to lose if we drop the algorithms and equations and turn to old-fashioned thinking about this for a while?"
Submitted by Veteran_Lender on Mon, 11/23/2015 - 14:20.
By 2009... I was a lender on the DAY the Tax Reform Act passed into Law. That was the DAY that residential housing values stopped coinciding with actual economic conditions and entered the realm of artificial rise by manipulation. Few recognize that the emergence of "Big Realtor" and the stripping of responsible representation by Realtors was a Weapon of Mass Future Destruction of home prices. Like banking, every real estate Law came after abuse and gave the criminals time to shift premise and keep corruption alive.
Two old summary warnings are coming into play. The Wickselllian extended period of artificial lower interest rates causing price rises and the flippant reference to pulling on a string to avoid inflation as a "can-do" but pushing on it to halt recession is a "no-can-do". Ehat have been ignored by our scholars and experts who are in the process of proving themselves. Either due to doubt or lack of understanding, we'll pay for the oversight.