In Providence, Rhode Island, Friday, May 22, 2015 Janet Yellen addressed the Chamber of Commerce and laid down some promises with accompanying alternate scenarios. Will we have increased interest rates by year's end? It all depends.
On jobs? The line of initial unemployment applicants increased slightly; the US/Phila. Business Survey is below expectations 8.3 expected - 6.7 actual; existing housing sales are lower than expected again; and the Wall Street three major indices are treading water, trying to decide what to do.
At last view - just before 10:30 AM EDT. Wall Street's single digit plus figures appeared to be reaching out for support.
Not one, not two, but several cases resulting in charges of impropriety are still under long-time consideration in US courts. These deals are of questionable character involving large deals, between banks, government FSEs (Financial Services Enterprises) with manipulation of values, terms and conditions which present inordinate adjustments to create “asymmetric” and favorable conditions prior to consummation of transactions. (Street language equivalent equals scam!)
A little Editorializing on our current status, May 3,2015. . .
“Complex forces are shaping macroeconomic evolutions. . .” opens Olivier Blanchard’s May 1, 2016 voxeu.org column.
Another trip back in time - April 24, 2013, Richard Koo, at the Zagreb conference sponsored by the Zagreb School of Economics and Management, this one centered on "Redesigning Global and Regional Finance", discussed his "balance sheet recession" hypothesis, the one advanced in his 2008 book, "The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession" - lessons, BTW, which were ignored completely as global finance slipped and slid its varied ways along the same path into our own "Great Recession" of the 2000s which is now evolving into the Second Depression.
Must be Green Grass - It's not common sense
Today, Thursday, April 23, 2015 -
- First time unemployment applicants are up; but,
- housing sales (existing) are down. New housing activity was up (slightly) in the last report.
So, the indices are up in leaps and bounds.
The elderly are targets of the clever manipulators who follow banking's lead.
At an earlier age, an impression of the "cantankerous" elderly protesting oppression established expectations that such behavior was a direct result of the aging process. Little did I know. . .
Comment has been made on duffminster's Times to the effect that job statistics do not add up. Employment gains are listed on a monthly basis and "New Applications for Unemployment compensation" are reported on a weekly basis. It is a mismatch to report that 186.000 new jobs were created last month but the last four weekly reports average about 280,000 to 300,000 and the headlines blast the news that the job situation is "firming up".
During the 1960s and 1970s the name of David M. Rose became known to O&G. Rose was an MIT Professor whose specialty was energy - electricity, energy resources of coal, oil, etc. This was back when the Scientific American magazine was chock full of informative articles of real significance.
. . . and so the stock markets dipped this Friday, the thirteenth, March, 2015: Bloomberg released its ECO US Surprise Index appraisal of US progress. Bottom line? Data "fell to the lowest since 2009, when the nation was in the deepest recession since the Great Depression." Citigroup's assessment was in agreement.
Let's Start That Discussion Here and Now- Workforce 2000
Submitted by Veteran_Lender on Mon, 03/02/2015 - 08:30.
I find it fascinating how some things jogged from memory can illuminate. My focus has been on supernova... the idea that at one point after the 1980's our corporations would grow too large and employ so few that they would burst like supernovae, as opposed to implode as they did in 1983 from downsizing when too much of them were reliant on US productivity.
When an economic analysis is offered, the audience expects no sooner have the lights been extinguished and the crew relaxes, the walls will cave in and everything will implode; or, if not, there is little substance to the evaluation and it can be swept away.
The jury is still out on that decision.
Unpublished thoughts from five years ago.
Axel Leijonhufvud, UCLA and Unv. Of Trento, Italy
At Bussels, October 14, 2009 ECFIN 6th Annual Research conference of the Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate of the European Commission
A short discussion reproduced in the Tsunami Thread about five years ago - March, I believe - which would then have put the introduction back a month or so prior (as always: the recall could be mistaken) - explained in short detail the intent of the Fed to shift everyone into a negative interest rate environment. Simple enough, cut interest to the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) and allow inflation to take over at a higher rate, debasing the value of your money. The process yields cheaper money to pay off the more expensive debt incurred.
All manner of speculation is replacing common sense these days: Oil was touted to reach as far down as 25 while a Saudi prince counsels bid goodbye to thoughts of $100 crude and OPEC, now with Iran's unofficial approval continues to pump and distribute to an over-supplied market; and China is supposedly smuggling gold into their treasury while the small Swiss franc creates a stir in Europe.
To what positives can Wall Street look forward?
What happened to encourage the one and a quarter percent jump (up 212.88)in the DJIA averages yesterday?
Oil jumped 18¢; the December, 2014 FOMC minutes were released which provided insights into participants expectations for future GDP growth, 2.2 to 2.5% by 2017 and beyond with inflation calming from 2.0 to 2.2% for the September, 2014 preliminary figures to 1.8 to 2.0 in 2017 and a PCI inflationary impact of 1.8 to 2.0%. This was accompanied by the vague suggestion that the Fed will wait a couple of months before deciding what action to take on interest rates.
Second day of the New Year and already the déja vue epidemic is in play.
Bloomberg headlined the marvelous US stock markets opening shooting straight up a hundred points or so at opening this morning and then collapsing. It was expected. Market pros are intent on creating an impression and dragging some unsuspecting neophytes into the game, shear them of some pocket change and once those early expenses are covered the market is released to follow the way the path of least resistance. . . down.
It's all fun and games until someone gets poked in the eye...
How to explain stock markets' unpredictable volatility?
The media is subject to this quandary on a daily basis. How do they solve it? - Is it no more than answering, what's covered in the news services in the past five minutes?
Veteran Lender has posted frequently on the condition of our retail markets, from the viewpoint of products, consumer needs and satisfactions and the conditions of retail industry itself. These two posts, the first from the beginning of 2014 and a current (Nov. 1st) addition may give the reader a sense of how we fare in the essential retail markets, the source of nearly 100% of our needs - except for those who have a direct private source of their own, farms, hobby manufacturing, inventors, etc. (not a large or significant market group in our economy).
Two gurus faced off with three Bloomberg staff members to discuss the outlook after a volatile October and the descriptive phrase 'Goldilocks' entered into the conversation.
Germany's DAX headed down at a 2.47% rate at market's close this afternoon. To start their Oct 16, Asia's markets are drifting down at a slightly moderated rate, but red. Italy was particularly hard hit, off 4.44%, losing 850.86.
Part I - Science and a career in science
June, 2012, Charles Wyplosz, Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva and Director of the International Centre for Money and Banking Studies among other activities and contributions, Contributed a column to voxeu which may have passed before many eyes without much stir. It was titled "One more summit: The crisis rolls on". This could have been interpreted into conversational language as, "So the EU summit was conducted and where are the results? What was accomplished for all the hulabaloo?"
The ECB prescription for recovery is a repeat of the Bernanke QE plan which the US Fed followed to no avail, and from which it is now finding it difficult to untangle itself after an eight year mess. The best that can be hoped for is if there were a stirring at all, it would have been minimal, based on vaporous hope, nothing more. Is there any evidence that an asset purchase plan, which transfers toxicity from one sector to another, generates any response other than a nation holding its collective breath, both public and private, with the underlying hope that "This time will be different"?
By 11:00 AM EST,the US markets had recovered from the 1% + drop opening, standing at approx. - 0.76%. Red still predominated globally but for the positive Hang Seng and CSI 300.
Explanations for the decline centered on the US ebola patient and relevant industries: e.g., airlines and travel in those confined quarters - generally down; pharmaceuticals at work on ebola medicines; healthcare, on clothing, etc., generally up.
Not helping matters are
- slowing factory activity in the US and Asia in September;
- construction spending declines;
At 11:16 AM this morning, the Dow stood at slightly more than 200 down. Thursday appears to be the new "unloading" day; dump on Thursday and pump on Friday to establish a firmer outlook for the start of the new week. However, the Dow dipped below 17,000 and hit a support level and bounced to a minimally higher point at about the 16,998 level at this time.
Reuters featured an article that highlighted the record high decline in durable goods orders, -18.2% - where a -17.5% decline had been anticipated. We're "due for a correction".
Amazing what can develop in one week’s time when least expected. The hope had been that the Fed could have announced that since the economy is doing so well we’d be able to raise interest rates. Suddenly, the consumer inflation indices are down, the bond markets which had been maneuvering in anticipation of the increases find themselves out on a lonely prairie abandoned and the dollar is slipping, and on both sides of the rate issue principals are retracting.
Smaller things create the greater picture.
Also a sign of the times, the Phillips group appears committed to ridding themselves of their first reason for being - electric light bulbs. Reuters had the short blurb announcing Phillips intention among other headlines that indicate our shared path regardless of the feasibility and compatibility with current situations. These are a mark of our times.
So the Reuters headlines herald today as the Dow dips a modest amount, barely edging into the three digit negative area.
The short blurb on existing home sales finishes off with the quick summary,