We’re not alone in our experiences, impressions or perceptions. Some prominent names have very much the same outlook, but their thoughts are couched in different terms, passions and wording. There are no assurances that this exempts them from the tribulations we experience as we stumble through the weed infested gardens of Economics and Finance - all of which is the rsult of deliberate planning.
Over the weekend a "narrative" has surfaced. The narrative in this case is a last resort mechanism; everything else in the economists bag of tricks has been tried to no avail, so, - "What do we have to lose if we drop the algorithms and equations and turn to old-fashioned thinking about this for a while?"
Submitted by Veteran_Lender on Mon, 11/23/2015 - 14:20.
By 2009... I was a lender on the DAY the Tax Reform Act passed into Law. That was the DAY that residential housing values stopped coinciding with actual economic conditions and entered the realm of artificial rise by manipulation. Few recognize that the emergence of "Big Realtor" and the stripping of responsible representation by Realtors was a Weapon of Mass Future Destruction of home prices. Like banking, every real estate Law came after abuse and gave the criminals time to shift premise and keep corruption alive.
Two old summary warnings are coming into play. The Wickselllian extended period of artificial lower interest rates causing price rises and the flippant reference to pulling on a string to avoid inflation as a "can-do" but pushing on it to halt recession is a "no-can-do" that have been ignored by our scholars and experts are in the process of proving themselves. Either due to doubt or lack of understanding, we'll pay for the oversight.
Athanasios Orphanides. Professor of the practice of global economics and management at the Sloan School at MIT delivered a paper June 3, 2015 in St Louis which was subsequently expanded and included in the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, Third quarter 2015, a 24 paged presentation calling on the Fed to move in restoring normalcy in monetary policy, by means of a “liftoff from the ZLB”.
48 years ago, December 29, 1967, Milton Friedman, perhaps the last literate economist we've had, delivered a presidential address at the eightieth Meeting of the American Economic Society. The title of the speech was The Role of Monetary Policy; it must be available on a variety of 'net sites and is worth the effort.
Alcoa (Aluminum Company of America), in business since the 1880s, announced its intent to close under pressure from Chinese aluminum production and resulting lower prices, another sign of US production and the U$D under siege.
Acknowledging the comments above and below this entry, (in the Politics and Economics thread between saldeck’s war on democracy and V_L’s Moses and Ramses III) the mechanisms we've adapted and the means of explaining same, respectively, it would seem fair to conclude, the last generation of ethical, moral Economists who understood and could explain the essence of human behavior in the marketplaces we've constructed have gone and we are turning away from the simple desire to understand and/or describe what we do.
When ideology, the backbone of political activity, makes its entry how does it effect the economy?
Daron Acemoglu, an Economics Professor at MIT since the mid-1990’s, published ”Oligarchic versus Democratic Societies” in 2008 in The Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008. It should be of interest to readers here at Duff’s.
IGNORANCE IS EXPENSIVE!!!!!!
Axel Leijonhufvud, UCLA and Unv. Of Trento, Italy -
At Brussels, October 14, 2009 ECFIN 6th Annual Research conference of the Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate of the European Commission
What do we have to look forward to? More relevant; Do we know what we are currently looking at?
The prospect of negative interest rates (NIRP by neoh’s acronym) were addressed early in the tsunami thread and it was presented as the targeted monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, but full of danger and deception. It was not considered that other nations would follow the Fed’s lead.
What do those bold enough to follow the Fed now face?
A time for problems
Submitted by Old and Gray on Fri, 10/02/2015 - 11:19.
I can no longer post to this site. Not by choice.
Strange things are happening to my contact with the outside world. Similar to those days when I was shut down a while back. It's carrying over to other applications with my PC. I believe. I'll try once more to post. If unsuccessful, I'll just await developments.
ATTEMPT #4 - This worked! (long way around. - But, then, what's next? Will they reclaim my PC license to practice?)
A Deliberately Engineered Divergence
Working on the subject matter - right to left on the list. . . The first two sort of meld together; we've seen his kind before - and suffer today as a result.
Last night - or, early this morning, time ran together and the distinction became fuzzy, the following headlines were gleaned from Wall Street Journal, DJIA. (The URL link is at the end of the list.)
- 4 hours ago - Investors Fall Out of Love With Deals *
- 6 hours ago - Glencore Shares Plunge as Debt Fears Rattle Investors *
- 6 hours ago - Alcoa to Split as Aluminum Glut Pressures Prices *
The news that US factory activity slumped off may have been delayed by Markit until the Fed passed its verdict on the ZLB, something that Bill Gross at Janus advised beforehand is dangerous to the health of our economy - or what is left of it - and needs immediate attention. Substantiation of his warning was contained in the Purchasing Managers Index, which BTW O&G did not notice in the Wall Street Journal's chart of essential data, their market data site. Thanks are due to Markit for filling in.
Janet Yellen, as reported by Reuters today shortly after the announcement.
Modern business contrition is a marvelous thing: offenders pay a billion or two - perhaps ten or twelve times more (that doesn't amount to much after cleaning out the cash drawers to the tune of a dozen decimal places more or less) - a state of grace is regained and business runs into another gauntlet of shocks unmodified.
For those curious about the measurement of market hysteria, Bloomberg has a summary of how VIX is derived. It is linked here: -
Red appears again after a few days of calm, which may indicate the concernss were not fully dealt with last week and yet more remains to be sold off before doubts are satisfied. From appearances to this point (6AM ±, Mon., 8/31/15) wr're faced with more retraction today and this week.
3 hours ago
- Stock Rout Was Inevitable And Will Worsen Says Leuthold’s Ramsey 3 hours ago
- China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails Aug 23, 2015
- Could China's Yuan Devaluation Spark a New Financial Crisis? Aug 23, 2015
- Mideast Stock Markets Plunge Aug 23, 2015
- China's Neighbors Step Up Stock Market Support Aug 23, 2015
We have entered into a potentially serious situation according to a model used widely to determine probability, or likelihood, of a future market weakness: namely, the pattern labeled “Death Cross”.
The catchword emerging more frequently is "spare tire"; reach into the trunk, pull that old spare out and you'll discover it is tread bare, deflated, outworn and useless. Also, consider we have a multi-wheeled vehicle: the hobbled and dysfunctional ships of state; the crippled global banking industry; the new unproven financial mantra built on half criminal, half wishful thinking - and two thirds bluster - and fundamentals which have rotted or otherwise proven themselves useless. . . and only one "spare tire", (Almost said a dollar short and a day late!
And it was operational at the same time we were active on the Microsoft Money Talk site.
For those who have not followed the group since its inception here at Duffminster Times, or have only more recently found an interest in the crisis we face, there is a government document available which very closely tracks the crisis we discuss.
How to beat the Market? What are your chances against two eleven year olds?
Thorstein Bunde Veblen, (né Torsten Bunde Veblen) (1857 - 1929), an American born of Norwegian immigrant parents, was mentioned in an Economics Class by a young student who has aged considerably since then, and the annoyed Professor waved off the mention of the name with a sweep of his hand to some place behind him and what can be labeled a "desultory sneer". No more was said of that issue in public. Veblen was not well received by Economists.
It was expected, no significant news here
However the stalwarts named as victims this time are surprising to an extent in one sense and to be expected in another. The reference is to those facing disappointment: tech giants Microsoft and Apple, Gambling giant Caesar's and the expected SSI, Social Security's disability support.
Up front on Reuters –
(Reporting by Michael Flaherty and Megan Cassella; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
Yellen says open to raising threshold for systemic banks
An overview of 60 years of business history
Submitted by neoh on Sat, 07/04/2015 - 09:00.
We hope that the Greek citizens, when asked by their children if they personally accepted the Troika ultimatum in 2015, will be in position to answer them without lowering their heads. We also hope that the leaders of the country will find the will and mind to meet the historical challenge it is facing."
. . . which O&G could not quite understand.
The gist was: IMF is now looking at a combination of currencies which could supplement the U$D with some intent for the future that was hazy.
It's mentioned here because of the attack the dollar has been going through, the purpose of which was to keep the dollar high and steady by any means in order to support the value of investments and holdings in US bonds and currency. In view of the lack of support for gold, the question would then be: in view of that effort, aren't all the rumored machinations self-defeating?
Included in that "outlook" . . .
Back in May (5/17/15) we questioned “normalcy” in economics in a comment entitled The economy and resuming normal operations. In the thread ” The Prosecution is not resting in deals leading into the crisis.”
The link to the earlier post is –
The story is in the fine print. Prodding into details tells a larger story with more meaning than can be found in press releases from hired help with impressive credentials. We hear and read of Fed executives casting out opinions from all points of the compass, suggesting every policy path for many reasons, here and there a valid one.