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Circumventing obstacles to post a reply

A time for problems
Submitted by Old and Gray on Fri, 10/02/2015 - 11:19.

I can no longer post to this site. Not by choice.

Strange things are happening to my contact with the outside world. Similar to those days when I was shut down a while back. It's carrying over to other applications with my PC. I believe. I'll try once more to post. If unsuccessful, I'll just await developments.



ATTEMPT #4 - This worked! (long way around. - But, then, what's next? Will they reclaim my PC license to practice?)


A Deliberately Engineered Divergence

Donald Trump, deja vue, and last night's headlines

Working on the subject matter - right to left on the list. . . The first two sort of meld together; we've seen his kind before - and suffer today as a result.

Last night - or, early this morning, time ran together and the distinction became fuzzy, the following headlines were gleaned from Wall Street Journal, DJIA. (The URL link is at the end of the list.)

  1. 4 hours ago - Investors Fall Out of Love With Deals *
  2. 6 hours ago - Glencore Shares Plunge as Debt Fears Rattle Investors *
  3. 6 hours ago - Alcoa to Split as Aluminum Glut Pressures Prices *

What Frightens the Fed?

The news that US factory activity slumped off may have been delayed by Markit until the Fed passed its verdict on the ZLB, something that Bill Gross at Janus advised beforehand is dangerous to the health of our economy - or what is left of it - and needs immediate attention. Substantiation of his warning was contained in the Purchasing Managers Index, which BTW O&G did not notice in the Wall Street Journal's chart of essential data, their market data site. Thanks are due to Markit for filling in.

The Fed Says, NO!

Janet Yellen, as reported by Reuters today shortly after the announcement.

In what amounted to a tactical retreat, the U.S. central bank said an array of global risks and other factors had convinced it to delay what would have been the first rate hike in nearly a decade.

All Is Forgiven - by Consensus

Modern business contrition is a marvelous thing: offenders pay a billion or two - perhaps ten or twelve times more (that doesn't amount to much after cleaning out the cash drawers to the tune of a dozen decimal places more or less) - a state of grace is regained and business runs into another gauntlet of shocks unmodified.

Bloomberg article explains VIX - Gauging Fear - 8-31-15

For those curious about the measurement of market hysteria, Bloomberg has a summary of how VIX is derived. It is linked here: -


Red appears again after a few days of calm, which may indicate the concernss were not fully dealt with last week and yet more remains to be sold off before doubts are satisfied. From appearances to this point (6AM ±, Mon., 8/31/15) wr're faced with more retraction today and this week.

“The Plunge of 2015” continues – the grey day of Monday, August 24th.

Bloomberg headlines


3 hours ago

  • Stock Rout Was Inevitable And Will Worsen Says Leuthold’s Ramsey 3 hours ago
  • China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails Aug 23, 2015
  • Could China's Yuan Devaluation Spark a New Financial Crisis? Aug 23, 2015
  • Mideast Stock Markets Plunge Aug 23, 2015
  • China's Neighbors Step Up Stock Market Support Aug 23, 2015

Bloomberg issues a stockmarket alert

We have entered into a potentially serious situation according to a model used widely to determine probability, or likelihood, of a future market weakness: namely, the pattern labeled “Death Cross”.

"Spare tire", International Trade, and Currency debasement

The catchword emerging more frequently is "spare tire"; reach into the trunk, pull that old spare out and you'll discover it is tread bare, deflated, outworn and useless. Also, consider we have a multi-wheeled vehicle: the hobbled and dysfunctional ships of state; the crippled global banking industry; the new unproven financial mantra built on half criminal, half wishful thinking - and two thirds bluster - and fundamentals which have rotted or otherwise proven themselves useless. . . and only one "spare tire", (Almost said a dollar short and a day late!

The US government had its own tsunami group, which mirrored our efforts.

And it was operational at the same time we were active on the Microsoft Money Talk site.

For those who have not followed the group since its inception here at Duffminster Times, or have only more recently found an interest in the crisis we face, there is a government document available which very closely tracks the crisis we discuss.

Market Strategy and Ninth Grade Math

How to beat the Market? What are your chances against two eleven year olds?

How Motif helped two 11-year-olds beat Ivy League MBAs in an investing contest



Volatility, instability, and making money

Thorstein Bunde Veblen, (né Torsten Bunde Veblen) (1857 - 1929), an American born of Norwegian immigrant parents, was mentioned in an Economics Class by a young student who has aged considerably since then, and the annoyed Professor waved off the mention of the name with a sweep of his hand to some place behind him and what can be labeled a "desultory sneer". No more was said of that issue in public. Veblen was not well received by Economists.

Third consecutive Quarter of Disappointment, Q2, 2015

It was expected, no significant news here

However the stalwarts named as victims this time are surprising to an extent in one sense and to be expected in another. The reference is to those facing disappointment: tech giants Microsoft and Apple, Gambling giant Caesar's and the expected SSI, Social Security's disability support.

The Carousel just started up again, folks, climb on for another dizzying ride.

Up front on Reuters –

(Reporting by Michael Flaherty and Megan Cassella; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)

Yellen says open to raising threshold for systemic banks

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday she was open to raising a threshold for determining a bank's systemic importance and indicated that U.S. lenders had made progress in their submissions of so-called living will plans this month.


Depending on foreign sources - Balancing the books

An overview of 60 years of business history

OXI - The Chronicles


Submitted by neoh on Sat, 07/04/2015 - 09:00.


We hope that the Greek citizens, when asked by their children if they personally accepted the Troika ultimatum in 2015, will be in position to answer them without lowering their heads. We also hope that the leaders of the country will find the will and mind to meet the historical challenge it is facing."

There was a rumor about the U$D and October

. . . which O&G could not quite understand.

The gist was: IMF is now looking at a combination of currencies which could supplement the U$D with some intent for the future that was hazy.

It's mentioned here because of the attack the dollar has been going through, the purpose of which was to keep the dollar high and steady by any means in order to support the value of investments and holdings in US bonds and currency. In view of the lack of support for gold, the question would then be: in view of that effort, aren't all the rumored machinations self-defeating?

International Trade is a concern - Blocking "recovery" again?.

Included in that "outlook" . . .

Back in May (5/17/15) we questioned “normalcy” in economics in a comment entitled The economy and resuming normal operations. In the thread ” The Prosecution is not resting in deals leading into the crisis.”

The link to the earlier post is –


Inconsistency: - The Fed’s message and the Stock Market

The story is in the fine print. Prodding into details tells a larger story with more meaning than can be found in press releases from hired help with impressive credentials. We hear and read of Fed executives casting out opinions from all points of the compass, suggesting every policy path for many reasons, here and there a valid one.

Update on Global markets 6-29-15

Someone with a crystal ball will have to explain this to me.
After the dysfunctional summit meeting dealing with the Grecian situation and other not insignificant issues -

Early today, globally, everything is red except for the following nations:

UK Bookies and the Greek Exit: Reuters' Account 6-19-15

Very bluntly, A British betting parlor is currently offering 9:4 that Greece exits the Eurozone by year's end. Those people do not give money away!

This is reported in a Reuters' video at this site: -


A Respected Economist Faces off Against the ZLB

Published on VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal (http://www.voxeu.org)

Removing the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates

The conference organised by CEPR , the Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis, Imperial College London and the Swiss National Bank, brought together academics, practioners and policymakers to discuss the relevance of a zero lower bound theory and the realities of an effective lower bound.

Source URL: http://www.voxeu.org/content/removing-zero-lower-bound-interest-rates

Conservative Ambition Is Universal

Paul Krugman's article in today's NYTimes (June 12, 2015) is about Britain's deficits and "wrong-headedness" in the way Britain's Conservatives attack the "problems".

To begin with Krugman states the basic problem much in the manner we might here at Duff's. He states baldly -

"So the true story of economic disaster, which is that it was caused by an inadequately regulated financial industry run wild and perpetuated by wrongheaded austerity policies, . . . "

The talk is Macro-; the vision is Micro-

Reuters Headlines enter the picture again -

June 2, 2015, Reuters presents these teasers -

  • U.S. factory orders fall unexpectedly; weakness in demand broad-based
    11:04am EDT;
  • Wall Street pares losses as data, Fed comments allay rate hike fears
    12:04pm EDT
  • Fed's Brainard says U.S. economic slowdown may be more than temporary
    11:14am EDT
  • Greece, creditors line up rival reform proposals to unlock aid

Not one surprise in the lot!


Janet Yellen and FOMC hedge Interest rate Bets

In Providence, Rhode Island, Friday, May 22, 2015 Janet Yellen addressed the Chamber of Commerce and laid down some promises with accompanying alternate scenarios. Will we have increased interest rates by year's end? It all depends.

Market is Relentlessly Treading Water. . .

On jobs? The line of initial unemployment applicants increased slightly; the US/Phila. Business Survey is below expectations 8.3 expected - 6.7 actual; existing housing sales are lower than expected again; and the Wall Street three major indices are treading water, trying to decide what to do.

At last view - just before 10:30 AM EDT. Wall Street's single digit plus figures appeared to be reaching out for support.

The Prosecution is not resting in deals leading into the crisis.

Not one, not two, but several cases resulting in charges of impropriety are still under long-time consideration in US courts. These deals are of questionable character involving large deals, between banks, government FSEs (Financial Services Enterprises) with manipulation of values, terms and conditions which present inordinate adjustments to create “asymmetric” and favorable conditions prior to consummation of transactions. (Street language equivalent equals scam!)

You had to be there!

A little Editorializing on our current status, May 3,2015. . .

“Complex forces are shaping macroeconomic evolutions. . .” opens Olivier Blanchard’s May 1, 2016 voxeu.org column.

Thoughts on Richard Koo's "Balance Sheet Recession"

Another trip back in time - April 24, 2013, Richard Koo, at the Zagreb conference sponsored by the Zagreb School of Economics and Management, this one centered on "Redesigning Global and Regional Finance", discussed his "balance sheet recession" hypothesis, the one advanced in his 2008 book, "The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession" - lessons, BTW, which were ignored completely as global finance slipped and slid its varied ways along the same path into our own "Great Recession" of the 2000s which is now evolving into the Second Depression.

Must be Green Grass - It's not common sense

Must be Green Grass - It's not common sense

Today, Thursday, April 23, 2015 -

  • First time unemployment applicants are up; but,
  • housing sales (existing) are down. New housing activity was up (slightly) in the last report.

So, the indices are up in leaps and bounds.

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