For those curious about the measurement of market hysteria, Bloomberg has a summary of how VIX is derived. It is linked here: -
Red appears again after a few days of calm, which may indicate the concernss were not fully dealt with last week and yet more remains to be sold off before doubts are satisfied. From appearances to this point (6AM ±, Mon., 8/31/15) wr're faced with more retraction today and this week.
3 hours ago
- Stock Rout Was Inevitable And Will Worsen Says Leuthold’s Ramsey 3 hours ago
- China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails Aug 23, 2015
- Could China's Yuan Devaluation Spark a New Financial Crisis? Aug 23, 2015
- Mideast Stock Markets Plunge Aug 23, 2015
- China's Neighbors Step Up Stock Market Support Aug 23, 2015
We have entered into a potentially serious situation according to a model used widely to determine probability, or likelihood, of a future market weakness: namely, the pattern labeled “Death Cross”.
The catchword emerging more frequently is "spare tire"; reach into the trunk, pull that old spare out and you'll discover it is tread bare, deflated, outworn and useless. Also, consider we have a multi-wheeled vehicle: the hobbled and dysfunctional ships of state; the crippled global banking industry; the new unproven financial mantra built on half criminal, half wishful thinking - and two thirds bluster - and fundamentals which have rotted or otherwise proven themselves useless. . . and only one "spare tire", (Almost said a dollar short and a day late!
And it was operational at the same time we were active on the Microsoft Money Talk site.
For those who have not followed the group since its inception here at Duffminster Times, or have only more recently found an interest in the crisis we face, there is a government document available which very closely tracks the crisis we discuss.
How to beat the Market? What are your chances against two eleven year olds?
Thorstein Bunde Veblen, (né Torsten Bunde Veblen) (1857 - 1929), an American born of Norwegian immigrant parents, was mentioned in an Economics Class by a young student who has aged considerably since then, and the annoyed Professor waved off the mention of the name with a sweep of his hand to some place behind him and what can be labeled a "desultory sneer". No more was said of that issue in public. Veblen was not well received by Economists.
It was expected, no significant news here
However the stalwarts named as victims this time are surprising to an extent in one sense and to be expected in another. The reference is to those facing disappointment: tech giants Microsoft and Apple, Gambling giant Caesar's and the expected SSI, Social Security's disability support.
Up front on Reuters –
(Reporting by Michael Flaherty and Megan Cassella; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
Yellen says open to raising threshold for systemic banks
An overview of 60 years of business history
Submitted by neoh on Sat, 07/04/2015 - 09:00.
We hope that the Greek citizens, when asked by their children if they personally accepted the Troika ultimatum in 2015, will be in position to answer them without lowering their heads. We also hope that the leaders of the country will find the will and mind to meet the historical challenge it is facing."
. . . which O&G could not quite understand.
The gist was: IMF is now looking at a combination of currencies which could supplement the U$D with some intent for the future that was hazy.
It's mentioned here because of the attack the dollar has been going through, the purpose of which was to keep the dollar high and steady by any means in order to support the value of investments and holdings in US bonds and currency. In view of the lack of support for gold, the question would then be: in view of that effort, aren't all the rumored machinations self-defeating?
Included in that "outlook" . . .
Back in May (5/17/15) we questioned “normalcy” in economics in a comment entitled The economy and resuming normal operations. In the thread ” The Prosecution is not resting in deals leading into the crisis.”
The link to the earlier post is –
The story is in the fine print. Prodding into details tells a larger story with more meaning than can be found in press releases from hired help with impressive credentials. We hear and read of Fed executives casting out opinions from all points of the compass, suggesting every policy path for many reasons, here and there a valid one.
Someone with a crystal ball will have to explain this to me.
After the dysfunctional summit meeting dealing with the Grecian situation and other not insignificant issues -
Very bluntly, A British betting parlor is currently offering 9:4 that Greece exits the Eurozone by year's end. Those people do not give money away!
This is reported in a Reuters' video at this site: -
Published on VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal (http://www.voxeu.org)
The conference organised by CEPR , the Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis, Imperial College London and the Swiss National Bank, brought together academics, practioners and policymakers to discuss the relevance of a zero lower bound theory and the realities of an effective lower bound.
Paul Krugman's article in today's NYTimes (June 12, 2015) is about Britain's deficits and "wrong-headedness" in the way Britain's Conservatives attack the "problems".
To begin with Krugman states the basic problem much in the manner we might here at Duff's. He states baldly -
Reuters Headlines enter the picture again -
June 2, 2015, Reuters presents these teasers -
- U.S. factory orders fall unexpectedly; weakness in demand broad-based
- Wall Street pares losses as data, Fed comments allay rate hike fears
- Fed's Brainard says U.S. economic slowdown may be more than temporary
- Greece, creditors line up rival reform proposals to unlock aid
Not one surprise in the lot!
In Providence, Rhode Island, Friday, May 22, 2015 Janet Yellen addressed the Chamber of Commerce and laid down some promises with accompanying alternate scenarios. Will we have increased interest rates by year's end? It all depends.
On jobs? The line of initial unemployment applicants increased slightly; the US/Phila. Business Survey is below expectations 8.3 expected - 6.7 actual; existing housing sales are lower than expected again; and the Wall Street three major indices are treading water, trying to decide what to do.
At last view - just before 10:30 AM EDT. Wall Street's single digit plus figures appeared to be reaching out for support.
Not one, not two, but several cases resulting in charges of impropriety are still under long-time consideration in US courts. These deals are of questionable character involving large deals, between banks, government FSEs (Financial Services Enterprises) with manipulation of values, terms and conditions which present inordinate adjustments to create “asymmetric” and favorable conditions prior to consummation of transactions. (Street language equivalent equals scam!)
A little Editorializing on our current status, May 3,2015. . .
“Complex forces are shaping macroeconomic evolutions. . .” opens Olivier Blanchard’s May 1, 2016 voxeu.org column.
Another trip back in time - April 24, 2013, Richard Koo, at the Zagreb conference sponsored by the Zagreb School of Economics and Management, this one centered on "Redesigning Global and Regional Finance", discussed his "balance sheet recession" hypothesis, the one advanced in his 2008 book, "The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession" - lessons, BTW, which were ignored completely as global finance slipped and slid its varied ways along the same path into our own "Great Recession" of the 2000s which is now evolving into the Second Depression.
Must be Green Grass - It's not common sense
Today, Thursday, April 23, 2015 -
- First time unemployment applicants are up; but,
- housing sales (existing) are down. New housing activity was up (slightly) in the last report.
So, the indices are up in leaps and bounds.
The elderly are targets of the clever manipulators who follow banking's lead.
At an earlier age, an impression of the "cantankerous" elderly protesting oppression established expectations that such behavior was a direct result of the aging process. Little did I know. . .
Comment has been made on duffminster's Times to the effect that job statistics do not add up. Employment gains are listed on a monthly basis and "New Applications for Unemployment compensation" are reported on a weekly basis. It is a mismatch to report that 186.000 new jobs were created last month but the last four weekly reports average about 280,000 to 300,000 and the headlines blast the news that the job situation is "firming up".
During the 1960s and 1970s the name of David M. Rose became known to O&G. Rose was an MIT Professor whose specialty was energy - electricity, energy resources of coal, oil, etc. This was back when the Scientific American magazine was chock full of informative articles of real significance.
. . . and so the stock markets dipped this Friday, the thirteenth, March, 2015: Bloomberg released its ECO US Surprise Index appraisal of US progress. Bottom line? Data "fell to the lowest since 2009, when the nation was in the deepest recession since the Great Depression." Citigroup's assessment was in agreement.
Let's Start That Discussion Here and Now- Workforce 2000
Submitted by Veteran_Lender on Mon, 03/02/2015 - 08:30.
I find it fascinating how some things jogged from memory can illuminate. My focus has been on supernova... the idea that at one point after the 1980's our corporations would grow too large and employ so few that they would burst like supernovae, as opposed to implode as they did in 1983 from downsizing when too much of them were reliant on US productivity.