This is a data packed article that challenges the notion that the US is actually picking up steam on the economic front and that QE won't be needed and the rest of the blather. BLS can come up with whatever BS they want but there is plenty of other data to suggest that employment and the economy are not nearly so rosy as the spin masters want you to believe and in fact, short of shock and awe levels of QE by the FED and UK in relatively short order, the global economy, is definitely in for a collapse and it may happen despite it, especially if the Fed and the ECB and other central banks are a day late and a dollar shy.
Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: The more silver bugs cry as they watch the latest breakdown in the silver price (NYSEARCA:SLV) the better it is for the rest who will make it through to the other side of the biggest financial crisis since the Civil War. Get my next ALERT 100% FREE
Take in the economic scenario the Fed faces, then ask yourself what the Fed will do about it and which planet will the silver price orbit after the dust settles. Here are the facts that should calm investor fears:
“Let us be honest. The U.S. is still trapped in a depression a full 18 months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP,” The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard penned in a Jul. 4, 2010 article.
Now look at Shadowstats economist John Williams’ chart, below. GDP is again dropping, 18 more months later, from Evan-Pritchard’s last year’s Independence Day article. (The real GDP is calculated by Williams, shown by the blue line.)
Now, take a look at the number of U.S. food stamps recipients? Does the graph, below, square with an employment rebound?
If the economy has been on the mend, slowly creating jobs for nearly a year now, why have there been 4 million more food stamps recipients in the U.S. since July 4, 2010?
Note the blue line in John Williams’ graph, below. That’s the real unemployment rate (approximately 22.5 percent)—the rate that would have been reported by the BLS during President Ronald Reagan’s first term (1981-85).
And the jobs created which blunted a crashing jobs market have been the throwaway kind. See BER article, Gerald Celente: Brace for Economic 9/11. The trends forecaster describes the type of jobs created, mostly the type of local jobs that you would find on the tropical island of Fiji, not the high quality jobs found in Germany or Switzerland.
And it’s about to get worse, as Celente predicts.
The U.S. is “tipping into a new recession,” ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan told Bloomberg Radio on Sept. 30 “We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.”
Okay, the Fed faces a U.S. economy that’s rolling over—again—from an already negative GDP, according to John Williams.
So, what will the Fed print to prevent an economic collapse?
Watch it; it’s a trick question! Jim Rogers explains in a Dec. 14 interview with TheStreet:
TheStreet Reporter: What should the Fed do at their upcoming meeting, aside from QE3? We’ve seen more Fed presidents come out and call for more monetary easing. What should they really do?
Jim Rogers: They’re already, Alex, they’re already . . . QE3 is already here, Alex. Get out the numbers for non-seasonally adjusted M2, and you will see that Mr. Bernanke said, in the summer, we’re going to keep rates artificially low. You can’t just say the words, you got to do something.
Rogers goes on to say that the Fed hasn’t stopped printing money since QE2; it just wants people to think it has. And thanks to a complicit media, whose been told to repeat the con over and over in an effort to prevent a bona fide run on currencies, some investors still believe the Fed has stopped printing.
Look at the chart, below. A couple of months ago, the Fed was expanding M2 money supply by 20 percent! That’s a rate that even former Fed Chairman under President Nixon, Arthur Burns, would blush at, as the maestro of the 60s and 70s presided over the highest U.S. inflation rate since the Civil War.
The Fed never stopped printing!
Silver investors now wait for Bernanke to announce even more printing! That’s when the top blows off the gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and silver (NYSEARCA:PSLV) market, according to Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, Marc Faber, James Turk, James Sinclair and FX Concepts John Taylor.
That signal could come in late January, maybe tomorrow, or next week, but it’s coming. Let’s see what more Fed money printing will be called this time.
Back to the Rogers interview. Notice how the scripted question by TheStreet reporter was written in a way to fool the public into thinking that the Fed hasn’t been printing money since so-called QE2 ended on June 30?
It’s the ol’ leading the witness trick, with a false premise to plant a lie in the minds of the observers, to throw them off the track to the truth. At least TheStreet reporter didn’t stoop to the, “Well, of course you’re going to say that, Jim, you sell your Rogers Commodity Fund” line, or something along those lines.
Here’s another example of the vicious propaganda thrown at some pretty smart guys who warn of a coming tsunami of commodities price inflation in 2012: Witness the Marc Faber interview on CNBC, last week.
In his interview with CNBC’s ‘working girl’, Maria Bartiromo, Marc Faber got the better of the dullard Bartiromo, working her over pretty well (if she noticed). Faber’s had 20+ years experience dealing with such nonsense during his time living in Thailand.
Bartiromo, after hearing Faber’s gruesome assessment of the world economy, said, “Okay, you think the world is ending, so which five stocks would you buy?”
By the way, if you didn’t listen to the Bartiromo interview, Faber outdid himself with yet another one his great Faberism. He retorted, “I Have A Very Special Stock Tip For You. The Symbol Is G-O-L-D.” Now, that’s a great Faberism!
And finally, and more dramatically, The Hat Trick Letter’s Jim Willie explains the Fed con in a really classic Jim Willie style—his style is the rambling and information-packed rant! See BER article and link to audio interview here. Willie covers almost everything in this interview that silver investors should know.
So we see sub-$30 silver.
Now for the question that’s on everyone’s mind . . . drum roll please. . . how far will the silver fall?
And the answer is the same as it has been since the bull market began in 2002: When every last ripe apple falls from the shaken tree. That’s when the price will stop falling.
And right now, the tree needs to be shaken as hard as the Fed can shake it, because the next move up in silver will most likely be akin to the last one.
You remember, the move from $17.50 to $49.94, from August 2010 to April 2011, a 177 percent price explosion higher within 8 months?!
The Fed would just prefer the base of the next move for silver (gold, too, as well as oil and other commodities) is lower before the massive catapult higher. Also, remember, north of $50 in the price of silver unleashes the metal; there is no resistance levels above that price. This is the last stand for the Fed, and it will make the best of it.
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This is just pure mathematical common sense from one of the true super stars of the hedge fund world. He has the right long term view and his view on holding the physical gold is correct. While he doesn't mention the massive manipulation and rehypothecation fraud going on and all the games being played in the derivatives markets, with even the viability of the exchanges coming into question, given the growing disconnect between the paper and physical markets, his conclusions allude to me that he knows it. If pension funds had been listening to Kyle, they'd be way ahead by now in my opinion.
Very brief excerpt of this great and long detailed article from Business Insider. (Opening words):
"…"My opinion is very simple as a fiduciary… to the extent that you own gold and you are going to own it a long time –it's not a trade. It costs us about 90 basis points a year to roll it through financial futures contracts," he said.
"And then we went and looked at the COMEX. The COMEX at the time they had about $80 billion in open interest between futures and futures options. In the warehouse they had $2.7 billion of deliverables. So $80 billion in open interest — $2.7 billion in deliverables. We’re gonna own it a long time. You're on the board, as a fiduciary, what do you do? That’s an easy one. You go get it. So you go take a billion of $2.7 billion and you let them worry about the rest."
"When I talked to the head of deliveries at COMEX NYMEX, I was like, 'What if 4% of the people want deliveries?' He said, 'Oh Kyle, that never happens. We rarely ever get a 1% delivery.' And I asked, 'Well what if it does happen?' And he said,'Price will solve everything' And I said, 'Thanks, give me the gold."…'
Good follow up on Jesse's article about lease rates. I tend to believe that the central banks set these raids up, especially in a situation like we see in Europe, where large banks still have gold reserves and are having a major liquidity crunch. The central banks want all the gold but they want it at the lowest possible prices. Central banks know that the only real "money" is not a fiat currency and they are now trying to get thousands of tons they sold over the years back and at the same time they want to keep the price down. Manipulating gold lease rates and working with their associates at the exchanges to play with margins, they are in a battle to both obtain gold while keeping the price supressed. Now for the article:
Note: click on the link above to see the charts.
"…One of the more curious dynamics for those who follow the gold market closely, has been the relentless grind lower (or higher if looked at on an absolute value basis), of gold lease rates (defined as Libor – GOFO), which recently hit all time record lows (i.e., negative), for the 1 month version, although the more traditional 3 Month (as it is based on the benchmark 3M USD Libor) was also quite close to breaching historic low levels. And while we have discussed the nuances of Libor-GOFO, or the gold lease rate extensively before, a good summary was presented by Jesse's Cafe Americain yesterday, who correctly suggested that record lease rates are a primary driver for the near historic sell off we experienced yesterday. In a nutshell, negative lease rates mean one has to pay for the "privilege" of lending out one's gold as collateral – a prima facie collateral crunch. The lower the lease rate, the greater the use of gold as a source of liquidity – and since the indicator is public – it is all too easy for entities that do have liquidity to game the spread and force sell offs by those who are telegraphing they are in dire straits and will sell their gold at any price if forced, to prevent a liquidity collapse. Said otherwise: to force a firesale. Well, we are happy to announce that the selloff spring clip potential that is embedded in a near record negative lease rate has now been discharged courtesy of the $100 dump in the past two days, which may have happened for a plethora of reasons and nobody can tell why precisely, but one thing is now sure: the underlying tension in the supply and demand for gold as a source of liquidity has collapsed. That said, the next time we approach the previous thresholds we will advise readers as it will likely indicate another gold-derived liquidity rubberband "breach" is imminent…."
Whenever Jim comments at times like these, people trying to preserve their wealth would be wise to listen in my opinion.
"…With gold trading down over $60 and silver lower by more than $2, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair. When asked about the action in gold, Sinclair stated, “Statements made by Mrs. Merkel, in Germany, this morning would have us believe that both the US Fed and Germany’s influence on the ECB would result in a willingness to accept a severe deflation, rather than willingness to accept a severe inflation. The selling (in gold) sent some of the fundamental guys out of their positions in gold, which affected the technicals.”
Jim Sinclair continues:
“Technical analysis, when looked at, is really everybody looking at the same thing. So the sellers are chasing each other trying to find the bid. I believe that what started all of this is purely political in nature. I firmly believe there is no political will, on the planet anywhere, but especially in the Western world, to invite a severe deflation.
As the deflationary forces continue to surface you will see the absolute opposite. I firmly believe you are more apt to have QE to infinity than you are to welcome rising unemployment and declining business activity.”
When asked about the technical damage in the gold market, Sinclair stated, “It isn’t really longer-term. The technical damage right here and now is something that from today’s lows could be corrected in a few days, easily repairable.
You’ve got support between $1,549 and $1,577. You’ve also got it overlaying $1,519 to $1,572. There is every possibility that you’ve seen the absolute worst of this as we’re talking now.
The most important thing is volatility. One thing this shows you, and it increases continually, is this is the wildest chop we’ve ever been in, in the history of trading gold, in terms of ups and downs. It means to me that gold is going to rise to prices even higher than I expected……"
I trust Jesse's analysis as much as anyone's. When he says "I smell a skunk," you can almost count on one being around in my experience. I also believe that the HSBC law suite against MF Global regarding alleged rehypothecated physical gold is germane to this scenario. Here is the link to that article (must read): The Gold "Rehypothecation" Unwind Begins: HSBC Sues MF Global Over Disputed Ownership Of Physical Gold. Below is Jesse's analysis and link:
This is the reason for the ferocity of this sell off in my judgement, coupled of course with a general liquidation in stocks and other 'risk assets.' I cannot help but notice that despite the message of panic, the SP futures remain in a fairly well defined trading range that goes back to late October. The lower bound of its triangle is around 1180.
Maybe things will fall out of bed, and Europe will topple, but right now I smell a skunk. And it is likely the offspring of BB and TG.
Central Banks were leasing gold for record low rates to the bullion banks like JP Morgan and HSBC. Silver lease rates also fell in sympathy.
As you may recall, LIBOR – GOFO (Gold Forward Offered Rates) = Lease Rate.
As can be seen from the last two charts showing the LIBOR GOFO spread, the lease rates reported in the press are a derived rate and actually represent the amount that can be earned from the gold carry trade.
I do not like to look at just the Lease Rate which is really just a calculated derivative like the 'spot price' based on the present value of the futures front month, but at the two major components that constitute it. Which one is driving the change in the spread, and why?
As an aside, I do not think that the major bullion banks finance their gold leases through LIBOR anymore in these days of excess reserves and quantitative easing, but it is a useful reference for most others. This tends to put a little more emphasis on the nominal level of the Gold Forwards Offered Rate. But this is just my opinion and I could be wrong.
There is an obvious 'chicken and egg' argument embedded in this phenomenon. For example, some might say that the high spread between GOFO and LIBOR makes it difficult for those who wish to short gold to obtain it since the price one pays to finance the deal is quite high. I think this is Tom McClellan's hypothesis as well as some others.
This is an interesting theory, because it seems to suggest that without the ability to borrow gold from central bank holdings and perhaps those others who can lease in large numbers like ETFs and not the spot market, shorting gold is not possible at these prices and the natural tendency of the clearing price is to stay the same or to increase. This suggests more manipulation than market demand and supply.
I tend to think that the spreads widen as the bullion banks must borrow more heavily to support their short positions with some sort of physical backing. When the pain of the spread becomes too great, they have the incentive to throw contracts at the paper price in a desperate effort to break the price and relieve the short term pressures.
The 'informational campaign' by the bankers demimonde that surround these bear raids seems to support this hypothesis of a 'market operation.' The central banks are notorious for rescuing Primary Dealers who are in trouble.
I would tend to categorize this latter theory of mine as the LIBOR-Gold Forwards Pain Index.
But unfortunately I can see both sides of these theories. I would just like to know who is motivated by leasing their gold in order to knock the price for some reason. I know of only two groups like that: the fiat central banks in order to help the bullion banks, and perhaps unallocated ETFs that do not particularly care what the price of gold may be as long as they can collect their fees.
"Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."
Alan Greenspan, Congressional Testimony on Regulation of OTC Derivatives, 24 July 1998
The bullion banks use this leased gold as collateral for more fractional paper short sales, breaking the price trend and forcing liquidation. Their sales are done in the so-called Dr. Evil manner, of dumping large numbers of contracts on light markets.
There is also the liquidation factor from the collapse of MF Global, and the reluctance of small specs to engage in the futures markets at all because of capital risk and lack of confidence.
This allows the bullion banks to arrange for a big price swing that allows them to cover their short positions and also obtain other assets on the cheap such as mining companies.
Since the leased gold must be returned after a short term period, this is almost always a trading gambit, as opposed to outright net gold sales by the central banks which have virtually stopped in the past couple of years.
This at least is my take on what is happening. If this is correct we could see a repeat of the big market bottom and deep lows with a spring back as we have seen several times before. And the magnitude of these swings may continue to increase as the sorcerer's apprentices continue to meddle with the real economy.
If the CFTC were to do their jobs, as the Europeans had done with banks like Citigroup who employed their 'Dr. Evil' trading strategy there, we would not have this type of harmful volatility in key commodity markets.
On these dips one would imagine that long term buyers are taking advantage of the low prices to acquire bullion and store it as a future hedge. As the bullion banks seek to return the borrowed gold, their demand attracts the momentum trading hedge funds that are now selling, so we see a big rally in the metals. The big rally in the metals causes the LIBOR – Gold Forwards pain to increase, and so the banks cry to be rescued. And so on it goes on, until something breaks.
The obvious artificiality of these price swings obscures the efficient allocation of capital, and the orderly operation of markets, not only in metals but in key commodities significant to the real economy. The CFTC and SEC apparently have the tools to correct this, but they choose not to do anything constructive for whatever reasons. Cronyism and Congressional opposition are two possible motives.
This is not dissimilar from the gaming of the energy markets that Enron made infamous before its collapse. Financial structures based on this sort of artificial con game always collapse, given time and the latitude for their greed made possible by regulatory capture.
That is why the public should have no patience with the commodity market makers like MF Global, a TBTF bank, and even an exchange when they fail because of reckless gambling and market manipulation.
As for any complicit central bankers, regulators, and politicians, justice must be restored and prosecutions made in order to halt the growth of the moral hazard of complicity in fraud and insider trading that is now endemic, if not epidemic.
While I am not thrilled that this prediction was given by CITI, I don't disagree with the analysis. What a buying opportunity we were given by the central bank induced panic liquidation, in which those same central banks received a great deal of quality collateral at a real discount from the increasingly illiquid European banks. This is a giant scam on the European community, forcing governments and banks to turn over the only real money they have, gold and silver, to central banks at ridiculously low prices even as the silver market has been in increasing backwardization.
"Citi Predicts Gold At $3400 In "The Next Two Years", Potential For Move As High As $6000" (click on link to see charts)
"…Following today's margin call anticipating, liquidation-driven rout in gold, the weak hands are, as the saying goes, puking up blood. Which may not be a bad thing – after all, sometimes a catharsis is needed to get people away from potentially toxic paper exposure which very likely has been hypothecated repeatedly via the same channels we discussed last week when exposing the MF Global-HSBC "commingled gold" lawsuit. But what about the future? Well, nobody can ever predict it, but at least we can sometimes look at charts in an attempt to glean a pattern. Which is why we present the just released slide deck from Citi's FX Technicals group titled "The 12 Chart of Christmas" which has some blockbuster predictions about the coming year, chief among them is without doubt the firm's outlook on gold which they see at $2400 in the second half of 2012, and moving "toward $3400 over the next 2 years or so." So for those looking at today's price action, consider it an opportunity to roll out of paper exposure and into gold, because the more deflationary the environment gets, the more eager the central planning cabal will be to add a zero to the end of every worthless piece of monetary equivalent paper in circulation. And that's a 100% certainty. …"
From citi: via Zero Hedge (link above, no charts included):
"…While we remain cautious on Gold in the near term and believe that we could correct lower towards $1,600 and possibly re-test the $1,550 area we continue to believe that the bull market remains intact. As with the Equity market we believe that 2012 may be reminiscent of 1978 when Gold rallied nearly 50% off the 1977 close. Such a move would likely put Gold in the $2,300-2,400 area in the 2nd half of 2012.
"…On a longer term basis we expect even higher levels and target a move towards $3,400 over the next 2 years or so. We are not yet on board with the idea of a move with the same magnitude as seen in 1970-1980 when the last spike in Dec 1979-Jan 1980 saw Gold almost double in price as Russia invaded Afghanistan. Such a dynamic would suggest a move above $6,000 but we prefer to take a more conservative stance and look for a move similar to that seen without that final event driven push at the high which was a “blowout top” in Jan. 1980…."
The mindless retail fund algos are letting their sell stops go off but at today's lows I'm guessing a lot of smart money is getting in for the long term all the way down to $24 and margin requirements should drop around then as well I'm guessing. For long term wealth preservation, the patient deep pocketed people and entities know this is a great long term buying opportunity in my opinion because when the stuff hits the fan on just how deep the fiat rabbit hole goes, Zimbabwe II is in store for all fiat backed only by debt, which can never be repaid at current currency valuations, and gold is still the only real universally trusted money, just not yet a currency.
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
All major countries are bankrupt, as is the whole world financial system, fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells King World News today, and while the focus is on Europe for the moment, it will shift to the United States, and the only solution for governments will be infinite money printing leading to currency collapse, hyperinflation, and social turmoil. An excerpt from the interview has been posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Jim Sinclair is one of the world's foremost experts on gold, currencies, trading and commodities and has been accurate on virtually every prediction on the price of gold he has made as to price goals even if the timing was slightly off. And who's isn't. This formula, is playing out even though in a bit of a convoluted way with the rising interest rates being capped by infinite monetization at the beginning rather than the end but the results are the same, infinite debt and credit leading to infinite internal monetization, leading to currency debasement and economic stagnation. While Bernanke is hedging his time, possibly waiting for a massive market sell off for political cover, the longer he waits, the less effective his printing press will be. I am seeing each phase of this formula playing out. It is vital for long term investors who are seeking to preserve their wealth to understand this formula in my opinion. The Fed has painted itself into a corner, QE to Infinity or Default in the death of existing financial order in my and I believe Jim's opinion.
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
Hi and thanks for being a member here. For the time being I will be doing most of my writing at the advertising free WEB site called the Duffminster Times
There is a community of excellent minds at that community and it cover a vast range of subjects. For serious commentators it allows for lots of opportunity to expression opinions.
I am currently out of all paper silver and gold and only hold physical metals. I am short the stock market on a longer term basis even while I expect the manipulation to be amped up this week and probably next. After the December 21st all bets are off on the broader markets as Merkel and Sarkozy are not nearly as aligned as the mainstream has you thinking.
After the major sell off in the broader equity markets (in which commodities will also be sold down in a general liquidation), I will be back buying silver and gold as it will become very evident that the only path left to the "monetary" authorities and governments will be an acceleration of "to infinity and beyond QE" and real assets will be the only logical play in my opinion but not before the big blow off.
Mom, Pop, stay out of this market for now or just keep buying more silver and gold coins for the long run.
I may also buy some more gold. QE or sovereign default, currencies backed only by toxic sovereign debt will lead to fiat currency devaluation over time. The only market where "buy the dips" seems to apply remains in the migration from debt based currency to hard cold cash in my opinion.
Remember, most of the latest information is at the Duffminster Times